After a prolonged spell of largely settled weather, a change is on the way for the UK during the next 10 days.
High pressure has been a dominant feature of the weather recently, keeping conditions relatively calm and dry for many. However, through the coming days this area of high pressure will gradually weaken, opening the door to lower pressure, wetter conditions and potentially some significant temperature contrasts.
Showery rain in the southwest
For now, high pressure remains influential, with the jet stream meandering to the north of the UK. This will maintain a generally settled picture for much of the country, although easterly winds will bring areas of cloud and a few showers.
A more notable area of showery rain is expected to develop across the southwest later on Thursday, continuing overnight and into Friday. Some of these showers could be heavy and there is even the possibility of thunder at times.
There remains some uncertainty over exactly where the heaviest showers will develop, so anyone with fireworks plans on Thursday or Friday evening should keep an eye on the latest forecast. Some places could see frequent rain, while others may avoid much of it.
Elsewhere, cloud amounts will continue to make a big difference to how the weather feels. Where skies clear overnight, temperatures will fall and patches of mist and fog could form. Conversely, areas remaining cloudy during the day are likely to feel rather chilly.
Wetter weather moving north this weekend
During the weekend, the focus of the wetter conditions is expected to move further north. By Sunday, northern England and parts of Scotland are likely to experience more rain than they have recently, although the precise timing remains uncertain.
Further south, conditions will remain mixed, with occasional showers but also some brighter spells. In any sunshine, temperatures should feel reasonable for early November, but beneath persistent cloud it will feel distinctly cooler.
Clear spells overnight will again bring the possibility of fog and a touch of frost. Meanwhile, parts of southwest England could continue to see showery rain into Saturday before conditions begin to change more widely.
High pressure finally loses its grip
The more substantial change arrives as we move into next week.
The high pressure that has dominated the UK will become increasingly weak and poorly defined before gradually retreating eastwards. As winds become lighter during this transition, mist and fog could become more widespread overnight for a time.
Low pressure will then approach from the southwest, bringing the potential for wetter and windier weather, particularly around the middle of next week. This system will also try to draw milder air northwards across the UK.
At the same time, however, colder air will be attempting to move south from the north. The big question is where the boundary between these two contrasting air masses eventually sits.
Milder or colder by the end of next week?
Forecast confidence decreases significantly as we head deeper into next week, with computer models showing several quite different possibilities.
One scenario brings an area of low pressure close to the northeast of the UK. Combined with higher pressure to the west, that could introduce a much colder northerly airflow, potentially bringing a notable drop in temperatures and even the possibility of some wintry weather.
An alternative scenario keeps that low pressure further away and allows higher pressure to build from the west. That would leave much of the UK drier and prevent the coldest air from spreading as widely.
Across southern areas, there is currently a greater chance of temperatures rising as milder air pushes north during Monday and Tuesday. Further north, however, the picture becomes much less certain, with the possibility of either that milder air arriving or colder conditions moving down from the north.
An increasingly changeable outlook
There are a few aspects of the forecast we can have greater confidence in. High pressure will lose its grip, lower pressure will become more influential and some wetter weather is likely as we go through next week.
Exactly how much rain falls, how far north the milder air reaches and whether significantly colder air can spread south remain much less certain.
With forecast confidence unusually low towards the end of next week, the details are likely to change over the coming days, so keep up to date with the latest forecast as the picture becomes clearer.
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