As we move through the latter part of March, the UK has been experiencing its warmest spell of the year so far.
For some, this has already delivered the first 20°C of 2026, accompanied by several days of sunshine, welcome after a dull and unsettled start to the year.
The key question now is whether this warmth will persist, or whether more typical March weather will make a return as we head toward the end of the ten‑day period.
The broader weather pattern explains how we arrived here. A notably amplified jet stream, alongside a secondary subtropical jet, has allowed high pressure to build across the UK. This setup has diverted Atlantic weather systems away from the country, creating settled conditions with light winds and plenty of sunshine for many areas.
High pressure remains in control through the weekend
High pressure remains the dominant influence for the rest of the working week and into the weekend. This brings a continuation of largely dry weather for most parts of the UK, with sunshine featuring widely, particularly across England and Wales.
There are, however, some local exceptions. A weak weather front trapped beneath the high pressure continues to bring thicker cloud to parts of central and southeast Scotland and northeast England, occasionally producing light rain or drizzle. Under this cloud, temperatures will be noticeably lower, with highs closer to 10 or 11°C, compared with mid‑teens elsewhere.
READ MORE: Deep Dive: Spring sunshine and global outlooks
Elsewhere, temperatures remain pleasantly mild, often reaching the mid‑teens and occasionally the high teens in sunnier spots. Northern Ireland, which has seen more cloud in recent days, becomes brighter through Thursday and Friday, allowing temperatures to lift to around 14 or 15°C.
Clear skies at night will allow temperatures to fall sharply away from cloudier eastern areas, bringing chilly starts and a widespread frost in places. These large day‑to‑night temperature swings are typical under spring high‑pressure systems.
Subtle shifts bring changing temperature patterns
Although high pressure stays in charge, subtle changes in wind direction will alter where the warmest conditions are felt. On Thursday, a gentle easterly breeze limits temperatures along some eastern coasts, while sunnier western areas remain warm.
By Friday, winds shift again, allowing eastern parts of Scotland and northeast England to warm significantly as cloud clears. This results in a notable temperature contrast compared with the previous day, with some areas becoming several degrees warmer despite little change elsewhere. It is a good example of how small changes in airflow can have a pronounced impact during settled spring weather.
Weekend outlook: dry for many, wetter in the far northwest
Into Saturday, the overall theme remains dry and settled for most of the UK. England and Wales continue to enjoy plenty of sunshine, with temperatures typically between 14 and 16°C. Scotland and Northern Ireland see more cloud at times, but rainfall remains limited.
By Sunday, the pattern begins to shift in the far northwest. A deep area of low pressure near Iceland remains well away from the UK, but its associated cold front pushes cloud and rain into northwest Scotland during the day. This brings thicker cloud, outbreaks of rain and a freshening breeze, particularly in the Western Isles and Shetland.
Further south, high pressure holds on. England and Wales remain dry throughout Sunday, with bright spells continuing, though cloud gradually increases from the northwest later in the day.
A cooler, more changeable start to next week
Early next week marks a temporary return to more changeable conditions. The cold front pushing south-eastwards introduces a polar maritime airflow, allowing cooler air to move in from the north‑northwest. This brings a classic March setup: sunny spells interspersed with showers.
These showers may fall as rain, sleet or hail, with snow possible over higher ground in Scotland and northern England. Some snow may even reach lower levels in the far north and Northern Isles. While this may sound dramatic, it remains well within the bounds of typical March weather and is expected to be short‑lived.
READ MORE: A year of cloud-powered weather forecasting: how the UK’s national capability is evolving
Signs of higher pressure returning later
The cooler interlude does not last long. Current guidance suggests that another Atlantic system approaches midweek, bringing brisk winds and outbreaks of rain. However, this system looks relatively weak, and high pressure is likely to rebuild quickly behind it.
Looking further ahead, ensemble forecasts point towards higher pressure becoming increasingly favoured again toward the end of March and into early April. While uncertainty increases beyond the ten‑day window, the overall direction of travel suggests a return to more settled conditions after a brief unsettled spell.
Several possible scenarios remain on the table. The most likely outcome features high pressure lingering to the southwest of the UK, keeping northern areas more changeable while southern regions stay drier. Less likely, but still possible, are more developed low‑pressure systems bringing windier conditions, particularly to northern and eastern parts of the country.
The bigger picture
Large‑scale atmospheric drivers support the idea of higher pressure playing an increasing role as March comes to a close. Ongoing warmth over parts of North America may help reinforce ridging downstream across the Atlantic, influencing the jet stream’s position and favouring more settled conditions near the UK.
While these longer‑range signals are never guaranteed, they add weight to the idea that spring’s quieter, brighter weather will continue to make regular appearances over the coming weeks.
You can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
