A mixed and increasingly warm weather pattern is expected across the UK this week, with spells of rain at times but also a notable rise in temperatures compared to recent days.
The overall theme will be a contrast between fresher, more unsettled conditions in the north and west, and warmer, at times hot, weather developing further south and east.
A warm plume from the continent
Much warmer air is set to spread into the UK through the week, originating from hot conditions across parts of western Europe. While the most intense heat is expected to remain to the south, some of this warmer air is likely to edge into southeastern areas later in the week.
This will lead to a gradual increase in temperatures, particularly across England and Wales, where it will begin to feel increasingly warm and locally hot as the week progresses. In contrast, the northwest will remain closer to average or slightly fresher, due to more persistent cloud and rain.
Unsettled in the north and west
Low pressure lingering to the northwest of the UK will continue to drive more unsettled conditions across northern and western areas. This will bring frequent cloud, outbreaks of rain and at times blustery winds, particularly across Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and parts of northwest England.
Rainfall will vary day by day, with heavier and more persistent spells moving through at times. For example, midweek rain is expected to push eastwards across southern and central parts, bringing locally heavy bursts before clearing.
Later in the week, another weather front is likely to bring further rain, particularly to northern and western regions, as it shifts position across the UK. Despite this, rainfall totals overall are not especially high for most areas, though some locations could still see notable accumulations.
Not great news for hay fever sufferers 🤧
— Met Office (@metoffice) June 15, 2026
Southern and eastern areas will see high to very high pollen levels this week.
Further north and west, levels will vary with the changeable conditions, but occasional spikes are still possible. pic.twitter.com/MQUFhyjiy9
Warmer and drier towards the southeast
In contrast, southern and eastern areas are expected to see more in the way of dry, bright or sunny weather, especially early in the week and again towards the end. Temperatures here will steadily climb, with highs reaching the high 20s Celsius fairly widely and potentially approaching 30°C in some locations later in the week.
Friday could be the peak of the heat for parts of the southeast, with temperatures possibly reaching the low 30s Celsius. This would place temperatures well above average for the time of year in these areas, while the northwest remains noticeably cooler by comparison.
Sunshine will be most prolonged across southeastern areas, although even here, some cloud and occasional rain may spread through at times, particularly midweek.
Risk of heavy rain and thunderstorms
As warmer and more humid air moves into southern areas, there is an increasing chance of more intense showers or thunderstorms developing later in the week. This risk is currently considered fairly low, but it does introduce some uncertainty into the forecast, particularly regarding where and when any storms may occur.
These heavier bursts of rain could bring short periods of disruption, especially if they coincide with the warmest part of the day.
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A marked contrast across the UK
One of the defining features of the week will be the temperature contrast between different parts of the country. A weather front will act as a boundary between cooler air to the northwest and much warmer conditions to the southeast.
This means that while some areas experience hot sunshine, others will remain under cloud with outbreaks of rain and fresher conditions. Such contrasts are typical during periods where different air masses meet across the UK.
Into the weekend
The mixed pattern continues into the weekend, with the boundary between warm and fresher air still in place. Southeastern areas may hold onto the warmer conditions for a time, while more changeable weather pushes in from the west.
There are early indications of further changes beyond the weekend, with developing low pressure potentially bringing more unsettled conditions into the start of next week.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
