For many of us, the past few weeks have felt relentlessly wet. Repeated bands of rain have swept in from the Atlantic, leading to increasingly saturated ground, travel disruption, and a general sense that winter has been stuck on repeat.
January was particularly wet in southwest England, eastern Scotland and eastern Northern Ireland.
At the same time, hill snow has been a frequent issue in Scotland. The very wet and stormy conditions have also been impacting western France and Iberia at times too.
But what has actually been driving this unsettled spell? As is often the case, the answer lies high above us – in the fast-moving river of air known as the jet stream.
What is the jet stream doing?
The jet stream is the main architect of our current weather pattern. This powerful ribbon of air, flowing several miles above the Earth’s surface, has often been strong and positioned further south than we typically expect at this time of year. When the jet stream shifts south across the Atlantic, it tends to funnel low-pressure systems directly towards the UK, increasing the frequency and intensity of rain-bearing weather fronts. Some intense wind storms have also occurred, such as Storm Goretti.
This winter, cold plunges across North America have helped to strengthen the jet stream. As that cold, dense air moves southwards, it enhances the temperature contrast between warm and cold regions – one of the key factors that energises the jet. A stronger jet stream acts a bit like a conveyor belt, rapidly developing and then propelling areas of low pressure towards north-west Europe.
At the same time, high pressure has also established over parts of northern Europe. This has created a ‘blocked’ pattern, preventing any significant shift in the position of the jet stream and limiting our chances of more settled, drier weather developing. This blocking high has also prevented the weather fronts pushing through and clearing the UK. Instead they have been stalling over the UK, leading to persistent slow moving bands of rain.
Blocked pattern becomes stuck
The current setup has been remarkably persistent. High pressure has been anchored over Scandinavia, while repeated low-pressure systems continue to approach from the southwest. This combination has allowed wetter weather to push into western and southwestern parts of the UK in particular.
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When the atmosphere becomes stuck in this sort of regime, it can take time for the large-scale pattern to reset. The jet stream tends to follow the path of least resistance, and recently that path has been directly over the UK.
While short breaks in the rain have occurred, they haven’t lasted long. The underlying pressure pattern continues to favour new systems arriving before the ground has had time to dry out, giving the impression of almost continual wet weather.
Will the rain ease in the coming days?
In the short term, the theme of unsettled weather is set to continue. With high pressure still lingering near Scandinavia, more rain is likely, especially for southwestern regions at times this week, as well as eastern Scotland (where further upland snow is also likely). This means some areas could see further issues associated with saturated ground and swollen rivers.
However, as we move into the following week, there are tentative signs of a subtle shift. High pressure looks more likely to build towards Greenland rather than Scandinavia. This small but important change could help northern parts of the UK turn a little drier for a time.
Forecast rainfall anomaly charts support this idea, suggesting that northern areas may experience slightly below-average rainfall during the second week of February. In contrast, southern parts of the UK are more likely to remain near, or slightly above, average for rainfall.
Is there a longer-term change on the horizon?
Further ahead, as we head deeper into February, projections point towards the jet stream nudging northwards again. This would bring a return to the slightly south-shifted, mobile Atlantic pattern we’ve been experiencing through much of January.
This means we’re likely to see a renewal of the familiar cycle of low-pressure systems moving in from the west, bringing further spells of wind and rain. Even if there are brief quieter periods, current signals suggest they may be short-lived.
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