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heavy rain and strong winds. “It's worth noting that the winds coming in more from the east. And that's pivotal to where we're going to see those highest rainfall totals building up. It's going to be around some eastern facing higher ground, particularly across parts of Wales, southeast Wales

@ <1000km scale smoothed out. 39 daily initialisations, each run 48hrs 3 x 39 x 2 = 234 CP model days 1.5km grid, explicit convection (RAL3.2) JULES land, SM from 10 year CP run Sensitivty experiments - spectra [email protected] Plot ratio of mean percentage of total spectral power at given length

with a range of 'trigger' thresholds (triangles) are plotted. The vertical axis gives the hit rate, defined as the number of times the event was forecast (with probability above a certain threshold) and later observed to occur. The hit rate is expressed as a ratio of the total number of occasions on which

to the day across Northern Ireland. Wet and blustery. Heavy rainfall totals building up as we go through the day. And heavy rain also pushing into parts of western, southwestern Scotland in particular. Now, we do have a couple of warnings out. Rainfall totals especially across southwest Scotland

Dry weather during 2003 Rainfall totals have generally been below average for most of the year, however, there have been exceptions. May, June and July have been close to or above average, whilst August and September have been exceptionally dry in many areas. October has also seen below-average

provides average values (°C). 22 Precipitation The UK rainfall total for 2016 was 1100mm, 95% of the 1981-2010 average, considerably drier than the previous two years and comparable overall to 2013. No individual region deviated by more than 10% from average, although some areas locally recorded less

) that uses the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) (2012) UK emissions nested within European emissions. The European emission distribution is from EDGAR 2010 with the individual country totals scaled to UNFCCC 2012 values. The prior also contains a contribution from natural sources from

. This was particularly unwelcome following the wet October when large areas of central and eastern England, eastern Scotland, the east of Northern Ireland parts of the South Coast recorded well over twice the monthly average rainfall. The charts below show daily rainfall totals for the first three days

, with rainfall the biggest story. Gloucestershire for example, has had its wettest Autumn since the series began in 1836. A wet Autumn for England Rainfall totals for the UK this Autumn have fallen slightly below average, with 301.5mm falling across the period, 10% less than the long-term meteorological average

on the date shown Highest rainfall  between 2100 UTC on the previous day to 2100 UTC on the date shown Sunniest between 2100 UTC on the previous day to 2100 UTC on the date shown The information provided uses the initial data as it is received; observations are subject to a final quality control afterwards. This is particularly the case for rainfall totals during snow events.