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• Met Office 10-day trend: Warm spells, thundery showers and Atlantic uncertainty

  for thundery showers, the latter half of the period hinges on the behaviour of tropical systems and shifting pressure patterns. A tale of two systems At the heart of this week’s forecast lies a dynamic interplay between low pressure to the west and high pressure over mainland Europe. This configuration

• From Amy to Dave: Looking back at the 2025/26 storm season

  ) was recorded at St Mary’s Airport, the highest wind speed recorded on the Isles of Scilly for 47 years, and this was one of the most impactful storms to affect the far south-west in recent decades. Goretti was a multi-hazard storm, also bringing widespread lying snow on the northern flank to much of Wales

• Met Office Deep Dive: Hurricane Melissa and the UK weather outlook

  rainfall and the risk of landslides, while low-lying coastal regions have faced the threat of storm surges and flooding. Climate change context It is worth noting that the conditions fuelling Melissa’s development, particularly the above-average sea surface temperatures, are consistent

• wafc-sigwx-verification-v1.0.pdf

  Characteristic (ROC) Curve. The further the plotted curve lies above the diagonal line the higher the level of skill. Figure 2 below shows the results of the turbulence SIGWX verification. The new SIGWX forecast is indicated by the blue line, orange is the manual SIGWX currently produced by WAFC

• Met Office deep dive: a change in the weather and a look back at summer

  , a seemingly small amount, but one that is having a significant impact on summer weather. Wetter than average and a taste of autumn As meteorological summer ends this weekend (with astronomical summer continuing until the autumn equinox on 22 September), attention turns to what lies ahead

• ukcp18-guidance---caveats-and-limitations.pdf

  of the distribution than in the tails, so we see unimodal (single-peaked) distributions. In these, the relative probabilities for specific outcomes are typically much higher near the 50% cumulative probability level (median) of the distribution, than for outcomes lying either below the 10% cumulative

• Arctic and Antarctic end-of-season report - October 2025

  on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, and less on the Pacific side (Figure 7b). Figure 7. (a) 2007-2025 linear trend in Arctic sea ice extent for each month of the year, with 1x and 2x standard error intervals indicated. A month for which the zero line lies outside the light shading indicates a chance of <5

• February & Winter weather stats: A regional breakdown

  to come and go across Northern Ireland and western Scotland over the coming days. We’re looking at a slightly warmer week, with highs of up to 19°C on Thursday.”   How do we know when records are broken?   The answer lies in a Met Office dataset that's been quietly mapping our weather history for around

• 2025 is double-record breaker: UK’s warmest and sunniest year on record

  % in comparison.  Read: The year in weather: 2025 How do we know when records are broken?   The answer lies in a Met Office dataset that's been quietly mapping our weather history for around the last two centuries.    Provisional Dec 2025  stats Mean temp (°C) Rainfall (mm/%) Sunshine (hours/ %) Actual 91

• climate-risk-report-for-csa---v10-final-april-2026.pdf

  million people in absolute poverty and dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods, the region is among the most vulnerable to climate change. This makes action against climate change all the more critical in this region. For example, flooding and cyclones pose severe risks to low-lying