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results show poor reliability • January – June 2023 • Compares forecast probability to how often Cbs are observed. • These match for a perfectly reliable forecast. • The results would lie on the dashed line. www.metoffice.gov.uk © Crown Copyright 2023, Met Office To improve reliability and resolution

change adds complexity, requiring a different approach. In the figure each cross represents a single location in the UK. It is evident that in the first decade after the forcing increase the precipitation over the UK actually shows a reduction for most locations in this example (the crosses lie below

there were several snow events these were mostly fairly typical for the time of year when they fell. Snowfalls in mid- and late- January generally affected northern areas but lying snow was briefly recorded as far south as the Home Counties and parts of the south-west. Depths exceeding 5cm were mainly

12, the evolving NH extratropical drift becomes large, lying between 1-2 °C during years 80-100 (equivalent to the UKCP18 baseline period of 1980-2000) and nearly reaching 4 °C by year 150, after which it reduces more slowly. In member 11, the drift is more modest (~ 0.5 °C) during years 80-100

(Mediterranean, humid sub-tropical and maritime west coast) Temperate climate zones lie between the tropics and the polar circles. The changes in these regions between summer and winter are generally subtle, warm or cool, rather than extreme, burning hot or freezing cold. However, a temperate climate

with increasing return period over the southern UK (the observations typically lie within the 12-member ensemble spread, Figure 2). However, all models have biases compared to the real world, but they can still provide useful information. Over the northern regions, the CPM generally underestimates

lies in transforming mindsets from a purely hydrometeorology science/technologists mindset into a modern business matter that is credible at the public level, and which will take into consideration the whole value chain of the hydrometeorology components and bring to all stakeholders the adapted

troposphere shifts northwards during break and lies approximately above the lower monsoon trough. This seems to provide an effective process of removing ascending air in the lower monsoon trough causing exceptionally heavy rainfall over Assam and along the foot of the Himalayas. Specifically

of sea-level rise on low-lying coastal areas in South Asia by working with organisations in the region to improve the provision and use of sea-level projections. Reviews of the recent scientific literature on sea-level science information and services for Bangladesh (Harrison et al., 2020a

shows the approximate 95% confidence range for the HadCRUT4 data (the ‘true’ global average is expected to lie outside this range around only 5% of the time). (Source: Met Office) Year-to-year variations of global mean surface temperature are strongly affected by natural variations in the climate