After a hot, dry bank holiday weekend and a summer that’s been remarkable for its warmth, the weather has taken a noticeable turn.
This week’s deep dive explores why we’re seeing this change, reviews the summer so far as it draws to a meteorological close, and takes a glance at some fascinating weather phenomena from around the world. Let’s begin by examining the shift in the UK’s weather pattern and what it means for the days ahead.
The week’s weather: From high pressure to flabby low
The dominance of high pressure over the UK has ended, replaced by an area of low pressure swirling anticlockwise just to the northwest of the country. This low is now the main driver of our weather, picking up frontal systems from the Atlantic and dragging them across the UK. Wednesday, in particular, is set to bring a significant frontal system, with heavy and possibly thundery showers moving through.
As the week progresses, the low pressure remains to the northwest, continuing to pull in frontal systems and more organised bands of showers. At times, these systems will bring persistent outbreaks of rain, especially later on Thursday into Friday. The meteorological term for what this low becomes is a “flabby low”, a less well-defined area of low pressure, with weaker winds and less distinct frontal systems. It acts almost as a blocking low, repeatedly drawing in new weather systems from the Atlantic.
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By the weekend, this pattern persists, with low pressure continuing to influence the weather, particularly in the south and southwest. Forecast models show some variability regarding the exact impact of these systems, so it’s important to keep an eye on the forecast as Saturday approaches. At present, the global model suggests an area of low pressure moving into the southwest, potentially bringing heavy rain and strong, gusty winds. However, as always, the situation may evolve, so “changeable” is the word that best describes the outlook.
Showers, rain, and the return of the westerly flow
Even as we move into Sunday, the UK remains under the influence of a westerly, polar maritime air mass. This means showers and longer spells of rain at times, with breezy conditions, particularly in the west. The good news is that showers often come with brighter intervals inbetween, so it won’t be a total washout for everyone.
Looking at the details, Wednesday’s initial frontal band could be quite intense, bringing heavy downpours, strong gusty winds, and the potential for thunder and lightning. The system will move into the west and southwest during the early hours, making for a potentially wet commute for those not still enjoying the summer holidays.
Thursday and Friday continue the theme, with frequent showers, especially in the west, where it may feel like a wet day with shower after shower. Eastern areas may see fewer showers and more sunny intervals. However, it will become gusty, particularly along western coasts, where strong winds and high waves are possible. The showers themselves could be heavy and intense, with the odd rumble of thunder likely as the week progresses.
Weather warnings and the importance of staying informed
With some models indicating high rainfall totals, especially in western areas, there is a chance that rain or thunderstorm warnings may be issued. It’s important to stay up to date by checking the Met Office website and social media channels, where any warnings will be posted as soon as they are issued.
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Saturday is another day to watch, with the potential for a wet and miserable start to the weekend in Wales and the south and southwest of England, a stark contrast to the previous weekend. Longer spells of rain are possible, and northern areas will continue to see blustery showers, some of which could be heavy and thundery.
Temperatures: From record-breaking heat to seasonal averages
This bank holiday Monday saw record-breaking temperatures in Wales and Northern Ireland, but are those warm conditions here to stay? Not quite. As the week progresses, temperatures will drop slightly. On Wednesday, eastern areas may still reach the mid-20s, especially if they avoid the showers, but overall, temperatures will trend towards the high teens and low 20s, more typical for this time of year.
Overnight temperatures, which have been above average for much of the summer, will also return to more ‘normal’ levels. While it may feel cooler, sunny spells will still bring warmth, making for a pleasant change after the intense heat of recent weeks.
Summer 2025: One for the record books
This summer has been extraordinary, with four heatwaves and some of the highest temperatures on record. The Met Office has released provisional statistics suggesting that this could be the warmest summer ever recorded in the UK, surpassing the previous record set in 2018. The average temperature for summer 2018 was 15.76°C, but this year, the average is running at around 16.13°C, already beating the previous record.
READ MORE: Met Office week ahead forecast: Unsettled conditions and cooler temperatures
Notably, this also means that the legendary summer of 1976, famous for its prolonged heatwaves, will no longer be in the top five warmest summers. All of the top five have occurred since the year 2000, a clear sign of the UK’s changing and warming climate.
Why was this summer so warm?
Several factors contributed to the exceptional warmth of summer 2025. June and July both saw above-average temperatures, with England recording its warmest June on record. Four widespread heatwaves were driven by persistent high pressure, either centred over the UK or extending from the Azores, bringing dry, hot, and settled conditions.
A dry spring left the ground parched, and a marine heatwave meant sea surface temperatures around the UK were well above average. These conditions combined to create an environment where heat could build and linger, especially when high pressure dominated. Minimum overnight temperatures were also widely above average, further contributing to the overall warmth.
All these factors point to the influence of climate change. The UK is warming at about 0.25°C per decade, a seemingly small amount, but one that is having a significant impact on summer weather.
Wetter than average and a taste of autumn
As meteorological summer ends this weekend (with astronomical summer continuing until the autumn equinox on 22 September), attention turns to what lies ahead. The latest European model shows precipitation anomalies for the next two weeks, with green shades indicating wetter-than-average conditions. There is no signal for a return to high pressure, another heatwave, or a prolonged dry spell in the near future.
READ MORE: When does Autumn officially start?
Western areas, in particular, are likely to see wetter-than-average weather, with frontal systems and showers continuing to move in from the Atlantic. This pattern is expected to persist into the second week, with Atlantic mobility bringing more wet weather from the west.
You may have noticed that it already feels autumnal, with berries on the bushes and leaves looking dead or falling to the ground. This phenomenon, sometimes called a “false autumn,” often occurs after a long, hot, dry summer. Drought conditions cause trees to enter a kind of survival mode, dropping their leaves early to preserve themselves for the rest of the year and beyond. While the trees aren’t dying, they’re not thriving either, and the early leaf fall is a sign of the stress caused by the summer’s extreme conditions.
Around the world: The Arizona haboo
Shifting focus from the UK, let’s look at a remarkable weather event that took place recently in Arizona, USA, a large, dusty plume known as a “haboo.” This powerful dust or sandstorm is associated with severe convection and can bring hazardous conditions, including dramatically reduced visibility and dangerous conditions for aviation.
A haboo forms when intense convection creates large cumulonimbus clouds. As rain falls from these clouds into dry air, the raindrops evaporate, cooling the air and creating a dense, cold pool beneath the cloud. This cold air descends rapidly, hitting the ground and spreading outwards, picking up dust and sand and creating a wall of dust that moves quickly across the landscape. The result is a dramatic and hazardous weather event, as seen recently in Arizona and even at the Burning Man Festival.
How haboos form
To understand haboos, it’s helpful to look at the meteorology behind them. On a hot, dry day, convection causes air to rise, cool, and condense, forming clouds. As the clouds grow, updrafts become stronger, and eventually, large cumulonimbus clouds develop. Rain begins to fall, but in the dry air below, much of it evaporates, cooling the air and creating a downdraft.
This downdraft hits the ground and spreads out, picking up dust and sand and creating the characteristic wall of dust. The process is a striking example of how atmospheric dynamics and local conditions combine to produce dramatic weather phenomena.
A season of contrasts and change
As meteorological summer ends and autumn approaches, the UK is experiencing a shift from record-breaking warmth and dry conditions to a more unsettled, wetter pattern. The summer of 2025 will likely be remembered as the warmest on record, a testament to the ongoing impact of climate change on the UK’s weather.
Looking ahead, the forecast is for more changeable, wetter conditions, with no sign of a return to prolonged heat or dryness and early signs of autumn visible across the country.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
