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PUBLIC WEATHER MEDIA SERVICE – PRODUCT DESCRIPTIONS Buoy Observations PRODUCT CODE – PWMS007 Release: 2.0 Date: 27 May 2016 Author: Colin Seddon Owner: Corinne George Client: PWMS Document Number: 1 Product Description History Document Location This document is only valid on the day it was printed

March 159.3 14 13 8 April 106.7 8 8 3 May 93.7 7 2 0 June 94.2 7 0 0 July 102.3 8 0 0 August 129.5 9 0 0 September 157.9 13 0 0 October 189.1 14 2 1 November 201.2 16 8 5 December 206.2 18 15 12 Long term averages - based on station data between 1991 and 2020 Month Daily rainfall total (mm) Days

A renewed spell of rain and strong winds may then affect some southern areas later this week. A range of severe weather warnings for rain, and snow & ice are in place for Monday. An area of low pressure on Monday provides a continuation of the extremely unsettled period the UK has endured

Forecast of seasonal rainfall in northeast Brazil for March- May 2019 Issued February 2019 NEB_upd_2019_AC - 1 – © Crown copyright 2008 FORECAST OF NORTHEAST BRAZIL SEASONAL RAINFALL FOR MARCH-MAY 2019 USING EMPIRICAL AND DYNAMICAL METHODS AND ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN DATA UP TO MID FEBRUARY 2019

typically at the lower end of the predicted range. Two forecasts (issued in May and July) over-predicted the ACE index. Forecast Period of forecast Number of tropical storms ACE index Forecast Observed Forecast Observed March* April–September 11 (8–16) 14 121 (74–169) 135 April May–October 16 (11–21

useful when very heavy showers are expected but it is not possible to forecast exactly where they will form. For example, a warning for heavy rain may be in place over a large area. The warning states that “very localised torrential downpours may lead to flooding.” By monitoring the radar, you can see

Normal Likely Likely Much More Likely Climate Outlook Asia: August to January Overview 3 Asia Current Status and Outlook - Rainfall Current Status: Much of mainland southeast Asia was dry during April and May with near normal rainfall in June. Over the past three months, rainfall across Indonesia

and Outlook – Rainfall Global Outlook – Temperature Global Outlook – Rainfall Asia Current Status and Outlook - Temperature Current Status: Southern Vietnam experienced below normal temperatures over the last three months. Temperatures were also below normal across India during May. Otherwise, above normal

of the MENA region and the Caribbean it is like to be warmer than normal over the next three months. The main exception is for parts of northern South America, including Guyana, where near-normal temperatures are likely. 3-Month Outlook March to May - Temperature Much More Likely Below Normal Near-Normal

upscaling approach The approach is organised into three stages, each with two steps, as shown in the diagram above. The toolkit is designed to prompt thinking and discussion. It may well be that thinking is more mature in some Stages than others, such that less time is spent on these. Conversely