As we approach the end of 2025, the UK stands on the brink of confirming its warmest year on record.
In this week’s Met Office deep dive, we explore the latest statistics, the science behind the numbers, and what the festive period has in store for the nation’s weather.
The changing weather pattern: From wet and mild to high pressure
December has been notably wet and mild, with a succession of Atlantic weather systems bringing persistent rain and flooding to parts of the UK. However, a significant shift is underway. The jet stream, which has been driving these systems, is now arching northwards over Greenland, allowing high pressure to build in from Scandinavia.
This change promises drier, brighter, and colder conditions for the Christmas period, particularly as brisk easterly winds replace the prevailing westerlies.
Christmas weather: Will it be a white one?
For those hoping for a white Christmas, the outlook is almost certainly dry rather than snowy. The high-pressure system will dominate, keeping most areas free from precipitation. There is a slight chance of the odd flake of snow over the moors of southwest England, such as Bodmin Moor and Dartmoor, if colder air coincides with a minor weather system. However, for the vast majority, Christmas will be dry, with the main weather story being the chill brought by easterly winds.
Have you felt the chill in the air?
— Met Office (@metoffice) December 23, 2025
It will keep getting colder, especially in the south, as Christmas approaches 👇 pic.twitter.com/fH5bGmxoM9
Sunshine and wind: A brighter, colder festive period
As the high pressure settles, cloud cover is expected to break, especially over western areas, bringing more sunshine for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. The easterly winds will be brisk, particularly along the south coast, contributing to a marked wind chill.
Daytime temperatures will drop to 5–7°C in the south, a few degrees below the December average, and will feel even colder when wind chill is factored in. Sea temperatures remain above average, but anyone braving a festive swim should be prepared for a raw, biting wind upon leaving the water.
Looking ahead: How long will the high pressure last?
The high pressure system is expected to persist into the New Year, maintaining dry conditions and variable cloud cover. As the winds ease, the risk of frost and fog increases, particularly at night.
While the days may not get significantly colder, lighter winds will allow for colder nights, especially where skies clear. Forecast models show remarkable consistency, with most ensemble members predicting high pressure to the west of the UK, keeping the weather largely settled and chilly, but not exceptionally cold.
2025: The warmest year on record?
With just over a week left in the year, the data strongly suggest that 2025 will be the UK’s warmest year since records began in 1884. Most regions are about a degree above the 1991–2020 average, a significant margin in climate terms.
While the final numbers will be confirmed in early January, the trend is clear: recent years are clustering at the top of the temperature rankings, with 2025 likely to join 2022, 2023, 2014, and 2024 as the five warmest years on record.
READ MORE: Christmas weather extremes: Records from Christmas Eve to Boxing Day
The sunniest spring and the rise of sunshine hours
Spring 2025 was extraordinary not only for its warmth but also for its sunshine. Many areas recorded more than one and a half times the usual sunshine, making it the sunniest spring on record and sunnier than all but three summers since 1910.
Temperature trends: Warming and the disappearance of cold records
Analysis of spring maximum temperatures reveals a clear warming trend since the 1980s, with historic cold records becoming increasingly rare. The mean temperature for 2025 is set to break records, continuing a pattern where the warmest years are increasingly recent. In contrast, the coldest years are clustered in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, highlighting the stark shift in the UK’s climate.
While average temperatures are rising, it is the extremes that have the most significant impact on society. The number of days exceeding 30°C has doubled compared to the late 20th century, and days above 34°C have quadrupled. These extremes affect health, particularly for vulnerable populations, and are a key focus for climate adaptation and mitigation efforts.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
