As we move into November, the weather is showing its dynamic side, with notable shifts in wind patterns, rainfall, and temperature both at home and abroad.
In this article, we’ll break down the latest meteorological developments, examine the science behind the forecasts, and look ahead to what the coming days may bring.
October’s sunshine deficit: A dull month for the UK
Before delving into the current weather, it’s worth reflecting on October’s remarkable lack of sunshine. The latest statistics reveal that, for most of the UK, October was exceptionally grey. Only northern Scotland managed to see more sunshine than average, with a few other patches across northeast England and eastern Scotland coming close to average. For the rest of us, it was a month dominated by anti-cyclonic gloom.
Northern Ireland and parts of west Wales saw between 30 and 50% of their usual sunshine, making it the second dullest October on record for Wales and Northern Ireland. For the UK as a whole, only 1960 and 1968 have been duller, making this the third dullest October since records began.
Who will see rain tomorrow and who will stay dry? Will the mild conditions remain?
— Met Office (@metoffice) November 4, 2025
Check out the 4Cast to find out pic.twitter.com/zXhYTpWyb0
This comes after seven consecutive months of sunnier-than-average weather, making the contrast even more striking. For those interested in the details, there’s a Met Office blog dedicated to October’s gloom.
A shift in the weather pattern: From anti-cyclonic gloom to southerly winds
The weather pattern has shifted notably since October. The anti-cyclonic gloom, driven by high pressure, has given way to a more unsettled regime. Swirls of cloud have been sweeping in from the Atlantic, and the prevailing winds have shifted from westerly to south-westerly, and now increasingly to southerly. This change is significant, as southerly winds tend to bring warmer air from lower latitudes.
The jet stream, that fast-moving ribbon of air high in the atmosphere, has developed a pronounced dip to the west of the UK. This trough is generating low-pressure systems and sending them our way. Over the next few days, this pattern is expected to repeat, with one trough being squeezed out and replaced by another. As a result, damp air from the Bay of Biscay is being drawn northwards, bringing outbreaks of rain, especially to western parts of the UK.
The outlook for Guy Fawkes Night: Mild, gusty, and variable
For Guy Fawkes Night, the forecast is a mixed bag. Winds from the south are being pushed up over the mountains, generating more rainfall on the windward slopes and creating waving effects on the lee side. For those planning to head out for bonfire celebrations, the timing and location will be key.
A band of rain is expected to move across parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland during the evening, making for a wet start in those areas. However, much of England and Wales, and possibly parts of Northern Ireland, may see the rain clear in time for the evening festivities. While a few showers are possible, a good part of England is likely to remain dry through the evening.
READ MORE: Met Office week ahead: Mild, murky, and unsettled weather dominating
Cloud cover will be widespread, and it may feel a bit dank, but the real story is the temperature. With southerly winds in play, very mild air is being drawn up across the country. Daytime highs could reach 17°C or even 18°C if the sun breaks through, which is well above average for early November. Night-time temperatures are also expected to be impressive, with some towns and cities staying in the teens overnight. Even northern Scotland, which may see some lingering colder air, will likely see temperatures in double figures by Thursday.
Gusty winds and their impact on bonfire celebrations
While the winds are not expected to be strong enough to warrant weather warnings, they will be noticeable. Gusts of 28 to 35mph are possible in some areas, particularly where the air is funnelled over higher ground. This could lead to very gusty conditions in some places, while areas just a short distance away may remain relatively calm.
For those attending bonfire events, it’s worth considering the wind direction. Being on the south side of the bonfire will help avoid smoke and flames being blown your way. The strongest gusts are expected through the Irish Sea and over the Welsh mountains, where the topography enhances the wind’s effects. Over the sea, the lack of friction allows the wind to maintain its strength.
As the weekend approaches, winds are expected to ease, which could lead to an increased chance of mist and fog, especially with the extra pollutants from bonfires and fireworks. However, for Bonfire Night itself, the gusty conditions should keep fog at bay.
Looking further afield: A powerful typhoon threatens Vietnam
Turning our attention to the wider world, a significant typhoon is making headlines in Southeast Asia. After making landfall in the Philippines, the storm is now moving into the South China Sea, where it is expected to intensify before heading towards Vietnam.
The Japanese Meteorological Agency projects that the typhoon could reach wind speeds of 110 to 150mph as it approaches Vietnam, placing it on the cusp between a category two and category three storm. The combination of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a significant storm surge poses a triple threat to the region.
READ MORE: Typhoons: What are they and how do they form?
Vietnam is already dealing with flooding in some areas, and this storm could bring a month’s worth of rain in just a few days. Rainfall totals of 100 to 200mm are expected at low levels, with up to 400mm possible over higher ground. The storm surge could reach three metres on the northern flank of the system, leading to coastal flooding.
The risk of further tropical development
Meteorologists are also keeping a close eye on another developing system behind the current typhoon. Tropical Depression B, as it is currently known, has the potential to intensify into another typhoon as it moves into favourable conditions over the weekend and into next week. The track of this system is uncertain; it could head towards the Philippines or curve further north. Either way, it is a system that needs to be watched closely, as it could bring further impacts to the region.
Back to the UK: A weekend of transition
Returning to the UK, the weekend is shaping up to be a period of transition. As the isobars open up, lighter winds are expected, which could bring misty mornings and murky conditions, especially given the moisture left behind by recent rainfall. A small area of low pressure could generate some rain, but high pressure is building from the east, setting up a battleground between competing air masses.
Sunday is likely to see further rain arriving from the west as a weather front pushes in, but overall, conditions are expected to become drier as we move into next week. The jet stream’s influence will wane, allowing high pressure to dominate, particularly over the northeast of the UK.
Temperature trends: Cooling down, but not cold
With high pressure building and winds turning more to the southeast, temperatures are expected to cool down, especially in eastern areas where the breeze comes in off the North Sea. However, the continent is not particularly cold at this time of year, and the North Sea is only slightly cooler than it has been. As a result, temperatures are likely to return to average levels for November, rather than dropping sharply.
READ MORE: How is temperature measured?
Model ensembles suggest a gradual decline in temperatures, with the most noticeable cooling in the east. Further west, the picture is less clear, as low pressure systems could bring milder air from the south or southwest. Overall, the message is one of moderation: after an exceptionally mild spell, conditions are returning to something closer to normal for the time of year.
As always, the Met Office will be monitoring developments closely, providing updates and guidance as conditions evolve. Whether you’re planning to attend a bonfire, keeping an eye on international weather, or simply wondering what the next week will bring, staying informed is key.
A gusty bonfire night and a typhoon heading towards Vietnam - all this and more in our latest Deep Dive with Alex Deakin 👇 pic.twitter.com/w7cyyvgfFK
— Met Office (@metoffice) November 4, 2025
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