A warm and increasingly summery spell of weather is expected across the UK over the next 10 days.
While many areas will see drier-than-average conditions overall, especially across the south, there will still be periods of rain and some variability in how widespread the heat becomes.
Warmer than average next week
Looking into next week, the overall signal is for higher pressure to dominate across much of the UK and Europe. This typically brings more settled conditions, with a greater likelihood of dry weather and plenty of sunshine.
On average, temperatures are expected to be above normal for the time of year, particularly across southern parts of the UK. Rainfall is likely to be below average across many central and southern areas, though the far north may see nearer or slightly above average amounts at times.
However, while the broad theme is for warm and largely dry weather, it is unlikely to be completely rain-free, and there will still be the potential for occasional showers.
READ MORE: Deep Dive: European heat builds while the UK sits on the boundary
Uncertainty in how the heat develops
A key uncertainty for early next week lies in the position and intensity of an area of low pressure developing in the Atlantic. This feature will play a crucial role in determining how far north and how widespread the hottest air becomes.
If the low pressure remains to the west of the UK, it would allow very warm or hot air from continental Europe to continue spreading northwards, potentially bringing more widespread heat across southern and perhaps central areas.
Alternatively, if this system moves closer to the UK, it could introduce more changeable conditions, with an increased risk of rain and somewhat lower temperatures.
A third possibility is that a deeper low develops further west, which could enhance the flow of hot air from the south and allow the heat to extend more widely across the UK than currently expected.
The heat is building across Europe this week due to persistent high pressure🌡️
— Met Office (@metoffice) June 17, 2026
Maximum temperatures could reach around 40°C in parts of Spain, France and Italy over the weekend
Minimum temperatures will not fall much below 20°C, leading to some tropical nights pic.twitter.com/vr5TnhqeaE
Potential for showers and thunderstorms
Regardless of which scenario develops, there is a growing chance that showers or thunderstorms could feature at times, particularly where warm, humid air interacts with incoming weather systems. These would be most likely to occur during the early part of next week.
There is also a low-probability scenario where more organised and heavier rain could develop, depending on how the weather systems evolve. While this is not currently the most likely outcome, it remains a possibility.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
