Many of us are searching for a meaningful change in the weather after a prolonged spell of wet and unsettled conditions.
Last week’s 10‑day trend hinted at a slightly drier window this coming weekend and, broadly speaking, that still looks to be the case. However, when we look for a major shift in the overall pattern, the signs simply are not there. Over the next five to seven days, the dominant themes appear locked in place, and the search for something different continues into next week.
The position of the jet stream
A key feature shaping the current weather pattern is the position of the jet stream. At this time of year, it typically lies further north, but currently it sits well to the south of the UK and remains very active. This south‑shifted jet is funnelling continued wet weather into Iberia, where flooding from intense rainfall are likely. For the UK, this pattern means we remain on the colder side of the jet, with low‑pressure systems continuing to bring cloud, outbreaks of rain, and occasional hill snow.
Interestingly, the lows affecting the UK are somewhat disconnected from the jet stream, meaning they are not intensifying rapidly. As a result, we are not seeing very deep areas of low-pressure or severe winds. Nevertheless, given the saturated ground in many regions, even modest rainfall can lead to further issues. As we head into early next week, the jet remains south of its typical position but shows tentative signs of altering its orientation, potentially important for later developments.
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Short‑term outlook: eastern winds, hill snow and further rain
In the shorter term, low‑pressure systems continue to approach from the southwest. These systems are bringing cloud, rain and milder air that repeatedly clashes with the colder air already in place across the UK. Winds from the east or southeast will continue to feed in a chill, especially around North Sea coasts, while the south coast may see temperatures above average on Thursday. Many other areas will sit slightly below average, with the wind making it feel colder.
As rain continues to move northwards and meets colder air over higher ground, further hill snow is expected on Thursday and Friday. This will mainly affect the hills of northern England and eastern Scotland. A number of yellow weather warnings in force over the next few days, highlighting the continued risk of impacts from rain and strong winds. Western Scotland remains notably sheltered from much of this, continuing its relatively dry and bright spell.
This weekend: slow‑moving lows and frequent showers
As we move into the weekend, the overall pattern remains largely unchanged. A sluggish, poorly connected area of low-pressure lingers to the southwest, still capable of pushing showers steadily northwards but not intensifying significantly. Meanwhile, a semi‑permanent area of high-pressure over Scandinavia blocks any attempt by the lows to move through quickly. This persistent block has been a recurring feature this winter, trapping colder air to the northeast while allowing milder air to edge into southern Britain.
Showers over the weekend will not generally be heavy, but they are likely to be frequent, particularly across South Wales, southwest England and eastern Scotland, regions that have already seen significant rainfall in recent weeks. Even modest amounts of additional rainfall could lead to further problems on saturated ground. The good news is that winds look relatively light and there will be brighter interludes between the showers. Over high ground, some precipitation may fall as snow initially, but temperatures should gradually rise, turning most precipitation back to rain by the end of the weekend.
Early next week: a possible shift, but uncertainty remains
As we head into next week, there are subtle signs of change, but no strong signal yet for a definitive shift. Monday’s charts show low-pressure positioned slightly closer to the jet stream, which could give it more energy. This may bring another spell of rain into western areas to start the week. By Tuesday, the jet begins to tilt, and a particular low‑pressure system becomes central to the forecast. Computer models diverge on what happens next.
The European model suggests that this low could finally push across the southern half of the UK and into northern Europe. This would help to dislodge the Scandinavian high that has been blocking the pattern for weeks. In this scenario, the UK would pull in colder air from the north as winds circulate anticlockwise around the low. This could introduce a markedly colder spell into the latter part of next week.
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However, this outcome is far from guaranteed. Ensemble modelling, which tests the scenario many times, shows that the colder solution is something of an outlier. Several model runs maintain the high pressure’s influence, keeping the milder air across southern Britain and preventing significant cold from sweeping south. The most populated ensemble cluster favours keeping temperatures broadly similar across the UK.
Beyond the middle of next week: a battleground pattern persists
When comparing multiple models, the European, the Met Office and the American model, the broader outlook points towards a continuation of the battleground scenario. Low‑pressure systems attempt to push milder air northwards from the south, while colder air remains entrenched to the north. Some runs show a brief northerly later next week, but this signal is weak and not consistently supported historically.
Overall, the more likely outcome is that the UK remains locked in a familiar pattern: unsettled, often cloudy, with spells of rain or showers, and temperatures fluctuating depending on the balance between milder southern air and colder northern air. There is a hint of something colder toward the end of the 10‑day period, but for now it is just that, a hint.
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