Space Weather

Space Weather

Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a  variety of effects.

Image courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams

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Aurora forecasts

Northern Hemisphere

Background aurora conditions are generally expected 18-20 Mar, although there is the potential of slight enhancements from coronal mass ejections that have a chance of glancing or weak impacts. The most likely of these is expected later on 20 Mar, originating from an eruption on 17 Mar. This may bring visible aurora to the north of Scotland and similar latitudes.

Southern Hemisphere

Background aurora conditions are generally expected 18-20 Mar, although there is the potential of slight enhancements from coronal mass ejections that have a chance of glancing or weak impacts. The most likely of these is expected later on 20 Mar, originating from an eruption on 17 Mar.

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Forecast overview

Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate flares likely (R1-R2 Radio blackouts), slight chance of strong flares (R3 blackouts). Chance of G1 from Coronal Mass Ejection arrivals mainly Day 2 (20 Mar).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours 

Solar Activity: Activity has been Moderate, with the largest flare peaking at 18/1919 UTC from a new region in the southeast. There were two further Moderate-class flares, one originating from a region which has now rotated beyond the northwest limb, another from a new region in the northeast. There are currently eight sunspot regions on the visible disc. The two regions of most interest have both rotated on recently, one in the northeast (likely a region from the previous rotation which gave three Strong flares) which has a large main spot with clear magnetic complexity. The other is in the southeast and has many smaller spots, but is beginning to show some smaller areas of magnetic complexity. A region in the southwest has grown in recent hours, developing what appears to be some small and weak magnetic complexity. A further region in the northwest has also grown recently, after emerging less than 24 hours ago, and is also starting to show magnetic complexity. The remaining regions currently appear stable.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the last 24 hours.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of ambient conditions, until a CME arrival around 18/1940 UTC. Wind speeds have been at ambient levels throughout, but jumped from near 300 km/s to around 350 km/s after the CME arrival. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak, but jumped to moderate with the CME arrival. The north-south component varied weakly at first, but became moderately southward directed after the CME arrival. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp0-3).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) remained slightly elevated after the S1 Minor solar radiation storm on 15-16 Mar, but on a slowly declining trend.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Moderate activity is now considered likely with a slight chance of becoming High with any isolated Strong flares, mostly due to the two new regions in the east, but with some growth in other regions suggesting these are worth watching too.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A recent CME arrival has been observed at Earth, and there is still the possibility of further glancing CME interaction through Day 1 (19 Mar), although this becomes less likely through the day. A further arrival is then expected on Day 2 (20 Mar), probably from the slower of the two CMEs from an eruption on 17 Mar, but perhaps also a glancing impact from the slightly faster and further south of these CMEs. Ongoing effects are possible on Day 3 (21 Mar), before easing. Aside from the CMEs, no other sources of notable enhancement to solar winds are forecast. 

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled to Active, with a chance of G1/Minor Storm conditions, perhaps on Day 1 with the current CME enhancement but more likely on Day 2 with the CME from the 17 March. Effects are then likely to decline through Day 3, becoming largely Quiet by Day 4 (22 Mar) in the absence of further CMEs. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to continue easing to background with a slight chance of further enhancements. This risk increases slightly later in the period.

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Solar imagery

SDO AIA-193

This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.

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SDO AIA-304

This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.

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