Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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The auroral oval is expected to remain at predominantly background levels to start. Some enhancements are likely by 19th October, due to increased geomagnetic activity, with the possibility of aurora sightings at high latitudes..
The auroral oval is expected to remain at predominantly background levels to start. Some enhancements are then likely by 19th October, due to increased geomagnetic activity, with aurora sightings possible at high latitudes.
Space Weather Forecast Headline: No significant activity expected.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity was Very Low, with just minor flares detected. A NEW, sunspot region recently rotated round from the far side during the past 24 hours and more recently a couple of small spots have appeared in the northwest quadrant of the visible disc.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind speed was slow over the past 24 hours, between 320 and 380 km/s. The total magnetic field was moderate, but with a sustained deflection to a negative (southward) direction, until 18/0300 UTC in the important north-south component. Resultant geomagnetic activity was mainly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3), but with BGS recording Active conditions (Kp 4) on the synoptic intervals 17/1800-2100 UTC and 18/0000-0300 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels during the forecast period, with only a slight chance of Common class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are currently no Earth-directed CMEs in the forecast. Mostly background solar winds are likely to become enhanced from day 2 (19th Oct), due to coronal hole influences, bringing elevated speeds at times. Predominantly Quiet geomagnetic activity is therefore expected to become generally Unsettled from day 2 (19th), with occasional Active intervals likely and a slight chance of G1 minor geomagnetic storms.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected.
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.