Space Weather

Space Weather

Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a  variety of effects.

Image courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams

Space weather notifications

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Aurora forecasts

Northern Hemisphere

Ovation model for the northern hemisphere: The auroral oval is expected to remain at, or close to, background levels. Any aurora sightings will be confined to polar regions, however these will be impaired by long daylight hours.

Southern Hemisphere

Ovation Model for the southern hemisphere: The auroral oval is expected to remain at, or close to, background levels, with any aurora sighting confined to polar regions

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Forecast overview

Space Weather Forecast Headline: No significant activity expected.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity was very low, with no significant flares. There is only one numbered sunspot region on the visible disc; AR2833 in the northwest quadrant, a mature and stable magnetically simple sunspot. A couple of plage (inactive) regions are visible in the northeast and northwest quadrants, with currently no spots observed. A new region is also currently emerging onto the southeast limb, but it is too early to be able to analyse this region.

No Earth directed coronal mass ejections have been observed in available imagery.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a nominal background regime, generally between 320-360 km/s, and peaking at 387 km/s at 24/2042 UTC. The magnetic field of the solar wind was weak, increasing to moderate strength through the evening. For most of the day there were negligible deviations in the important north-south direction, until late in the day when the north-south component suddenly became moderately southward. A weak connection to a coronal hole may have occurred through the evening, The resulting geomagnetic Activity was Quiet, then becoming Unsettled at the end of the day.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels with no solar radiation storms observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to be low or very low, with a slight chance of Common class flares, mainly from the large plage region in the northeast quadrant but also potentially from the new region currently rotating onto the southeast limb. No further sunspot regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disc.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are currently no Earth-directed CMEs in the forecast. Background solar winds may occasionally become slightly elevated under temporary weak coronal hole influences, especially today. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of an isolated Active period through the remainder of this UTC night.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is forecast to persist at background levels with no solar radiation storms occurring.

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Solar imagery

SDO AIA-193

This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.

SDO AIA-304

This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.

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