Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora oval is likely to remain near background through the period, with a slight chance of some enhancement from 14 Dec. Although any visibility of the aurora is expected to remain limited to the highest geomagnetic latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora oval is likely to remain near background through the period, with a slight chance of some enhancement from 14 Dec. Although any visibility of the aurora is expected to remain limited to the highest geomagnetic latitudes. Any visibility will also be limited by the short hours of darkness.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Low to Moderate Solar Activity
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate with three Moderate class flares observed. Peak flare was from the region in the northeast. This is the most developmental region on the disc and currently shows some limited complexity due to its mixed polarity magnetic field. The next most active was the small region in the southeast that remains difficult to assess due to its location. This was the source of the other two M-class flares. The other region of note, is the moderately sized region now moving across the southwest disc, but has been relatively inactive in comparison.
No Earth directed coronal mass ejection (CME's) were observed although a number have been analysed as missing.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds eased from slightly elevated, at just over 400km/s to be mainly background from 11/1530 UTC, at around 350-400km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak, with the north-south component (Bz) mainly negative (southwards). Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 1-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background, with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate activity is likely with occasional Moderate class flares and a slight chance of Strong class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth directed CMEs. Mainly background winds are expected. The next main enhancement to the solar wind is likely to be on day 4 (14 Dec) or just beyond this period on day 5 (15 Dec) from the onset of the fast winds from a coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity is forecast to be Quiet with a chance of isolated Unsettled intervals. This increasing to give Unsettled to Active, with a slight chance of G1 Minor Storm intervals on day 4 (14 Dec) if any enhancement occurs.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at background, with only a very slight chance of solar radiation storms occurring.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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