Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.Image courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams
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Latest Ovation model for the northern hemisphere. Aurora sightings are unlikely with no significant activity forecast.
Latest Ovation model for the southern hemisphere. Aurora sightings are unlikely with no significant activity forecast.
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Slight Chance of G1 Minor Geomagnetic Storm on Monday 17 February, soon reducing.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been very low over the past 24 hours, with no sunspot regions on the facing side of the sun. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) observed in satellite imagery during the UTC afternoon of Saturday 15 February has been analysed and has been determined to most likely pass behind the Earth in its orbit, with no effect felt at Earth. No new CMEs were evident in imagery in the past 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind speed saw an overall slight decline in the period, while the number of particles comprising the wind was near the long-term background throughout. At the same time, the magnitude of the magnetic field associated with these particles was small. The result of the above measures on geomagnetic activity was quiet throughout, near the bottom of the measurement scale.
Four Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed CMEs feature in the forecast. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be slightly elevated at times through this period, as a succession of three minor enhancements in the solar wind speed (from 'coronal holes') potentially make themselves felt. Of these, the first is likely to be the most marked, expected on day one (Monday 17 February) with a corresponding Slight Chance of G1, although the recent trend in imagery appears to indicate that this is a weakening feature.
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.