Space Weather

Space Weather

Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a  variety of effects.

Image courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams

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Aurora forecasts

Northern Hemisphere

Some slight enhancement to the auroral oval is possible between 02-03 Dec due to weak coronal hole high-speed stream and potential minor coronal mass ejection (CME) influence. The southern extent of visible aurora at peak is expected be limited to the far north of the UK.

Southern Hemisphere

Some slight enhancement to the auroral oval is possible between 02-03 Dec due to weak coronal hole high-speed stream and potential minor coronal mass ejection (CME) influence. The northern extent of visible aurora at peak is expected to be limited to the far south of the South Island of New Zealand and similar latitudes. However, views could be limited by the shortened hours of darkness at this time of year.

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Forecast overview

Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate flares.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Low with only Common-class flares observed. There are six visible sunspot regions currently on the visible disc, the largest of which are a pair of regions in the southwest. However these are magnetically relatively simple and have been largely inactive. The next most notable is the larger of the regions in the southeast. This is a small east-west aligned sunspot, but also a relatively simple and currently inactive bipolar group. The other regions remain relatively stable and inactive.

No Earth-directed CMEs (coronal mass ejections) were observed in available imagery.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds speeds were background to slightly elevated, ranging 380-470km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) strength, Bt, was weak to moderate with the north-south component (Bz) also weak to moderate. Mainly northward directed initially, but with increasing southward spells through the period. Geomagnetic was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background with no solar radiation storms occurring.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A slow CME from a filament eruption on 27 Nov has a chance of a glancing impact on day 1 (02 Dec) or early day 2 (03 Dec), however only limited enhancements are expected. Otherwise in the absence of CME enhancement generally slow solar winds are likely to persist through the period, with background to slightly elevated speeds expected. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet with isolated Unsettled intervals. Any CME enhancement day 1-2 (02-03 Dec) brings a chance of an Active spell and a slight chance of G1/Minor Storms intervals.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to remain at background, with only a slight chance of these increasing if any larger solar flares were to occur.

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Solar imagery

SDO AIA-193

This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.

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SDO AIA-304

This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.

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