Space Weather

Space Weather

Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a  variety of effects.

Image courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams

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Aurora forecasts

Northern Hemisphere

Periods of enhanced aurora are possible due to ongoing fast solar winds, most likely on Wednesday night or Thursday morning (UTC). This bringing a chance of visible aurora to northern parts of Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes.

Southern Hemisphere

Periods of enhanced aurora are possible due to ongoing fast solar winds, most likely on Wednesday night or Thursday morning (UTC). This bringing a chance of visible aurora to southern parts of New Zealand's south island and other similar geomagnetic latitudes under clear skies.

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Forecast overview

Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate flares. Chance of Minor Geomagnetic storms (G1), most likely late Day 2 into Day 3 (12-13 Feb). 

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Moderate with one isolated Moderate class flare observed, peaking at 11/0535 UTC. This was from what has been the most active region on the disc, but has now rotated over the northwest limb. There are seven sunspot regions currently on the visible disc, however these are generally small and simple. The larger region in the southeast, is perhaps the most notable, however this appears to be a mature region dominated by its large leader, with only limited complexity or activity.   

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed from available imagery. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The ongoing influence of the fast wind from a coronal hole was observed. Solar wind speeds persisted at elevated, between 500-600km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field strength was weak with the north-south component also weak but mainly negative (southwards-directed) with only brief positive intervals. Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4).

The waning influence of the fast wind was observed. Solar wind speeds initially around 580km/s saw a slow decline to around 510km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field strength, was weak. The north-south component, was also weak and variable in direction, slightly favouring negative (southwards-directed) conditions. Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background throughout with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Moderate to Low activity expected with a chance of further Moderate class flares. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs. Ongoing fast solar winds are expected to gradually decline during the start of Day 1 (12 Feb), before then transitioning into a further and more prolonged period of fast winds later Day 1 and into Day 2 (12-13 Feb).  Initially Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity with Active intervals forecast by the end of Day 1 (12 Feb) with a chance of G1 Minor Storms, most likely with the transition into the fast wind regime Days 1-2 (12-13 Feb).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is forecast to remain at background throughout with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.

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Solar imagery

SDO AIA-193

This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.

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SDO AIA-304

This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.

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