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Long range forecast

Long range forecast

Tuesday 4 Jun - Thursday 13 Jun

In early June, it looks likely there will be a split in conditions across the UK. Further south, higher pressure is likely to continue to dominate, although perhaps with some cloudier interludes and the patchy rain. The north is likely to see more in the way of unsettled weather, with a mix of blustery showers and sunny spells. Temperatures generally around average in the south, but occasionally rather cool in the north, especially along exposed coasts. Thereafter the outlook becomes more uncertain. The south of the UK will probably continue to be drier, although it's not possible to rule out scattered showers at times. Cooler and cloudier further northwest, where rain is more likely. Temperatures probably around normal.

Friday 14 Jun - Friday 28 Jun

Current indications are that the chances of high pressure or low pressure dominating are fairly balanced for this period. There is no strong signal for either dry or wet conditions being the more prominent feature of the weather. On balance, it is probable that a continuation of variable, slow moving weather patterns are likely through much of June, similar to that which has been experienced through May. However, with potentially slow moving weather systems there is still a chance that longer-lived drier, or even wetter, spells are entirely possible too. Temperatures are most likely to be around or above normal.

Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?


Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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