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Long range forecast

Long range forecast

Monday 28 Sep - Wednesday 7 Oct

Cloud and outbreaks of drizzle affecting the east and west at first with dry weather in between on Monday. Initially many places dry Tuesday before cloud and rain arrive later. Into the middle of next week, it is set to return to unsettled conditions. There will be generally windy weather coupled with showers and occasional longer spells of rain at times. The heaviest rain most likely in the west and northwest, which may also see gales, low likelihood of severe, at times. Although in the east and southeast, there may still be brief interludes of drier and sunnier weather. Temperatures will generally be rather cool, potentially cooler in more persistent rainfall, and overnight frost may be seen in prone parts of the north during any brief interludes of calmer weather.

Thursday 8 Oct - Thursday 22 Oct

Further into October, conditions are likely to remain unsettled for most. The most unsettled conditions being in southern areas. Generally windy with a chance of gales however the risk of gales reduces later in the period. Feeling cool throughout with a risk of overnight frost. Lighter winds means that morning fog patches may also become more prevalent towards mid-month.

Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?


Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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