Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Saturday 25 Sep - Monday 4 Oct
Saturday will see outbreaks of rain, heavy in places, affecting northern areas, with drier and brighter conditions further south, some light rain or drizzle along coasts and hills here, however. Following this, generally unsettled conditions are set to continue across the UK, with showers and longer spells of rain, heavy at times, interspersed with drier, sunnier interludes. Into October, a very general north to south split in weather is likely to form. The north is expected to see the most unsettled conditions, outbreaks of rain, possibly heavy at times, and strong winds, possibly coastal gales. Drier, sunnier weather looks more likely further south, though unsettled weather could still spread here at times. Temperatures generally near or slightly below average but may slightly rise towards the end of this period.
Tuesday 5 Oct - Tuesday 19 Oct
Current signals, although quite weak, suggest that higher pressure is expected over the southeast during this period, giving generally settled conditions here and to eastern parts. Conversely, low pressure will tend to lie to the northwest of the UK, bringing more in the way of rain and stronger winds to northern and western areas, with a low risk of stormy conditions. This more unsettled weather could occasionally spread further towards the southeast. Temperatures are more likely to be above average through this period.