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Long range forecast

Long range forecast

Friday 12 Mar - Sunday 21 Mar

Staying unsettled and often windy into the start of this period. All areas are likely to see showers or longer spells of rain at times. Some snow is likely over northern hills. Western areas will be wettest with eastern areas seeing more prolonged, drier interludes. Temperatures around average. Into the following week there is a chance of more settled, drier and brighter conditions in southern areas, but overall, most are likely to observe alternations between wet and rainy weather, interspersed with settled conditions. There remains a potential for strong winds, with these most likely across the west and northwest of the UK. Temperatures are expected to remain around average with overnight frosts still possible, especially during settled interludes.

Sunday 21 Mar - Sunday 4 Apr

Into the latter part of March, unsettled conditions are likely to be increasingly confined to the north and west of the UK, with the south and east probably seeing more settled conditions. Into the beginning of April, there is a chance that the settled conditions will become more widespread to bring some drier spells of weather for most. Temperatures are most likely to remain near to or slightly above average, with any colder or cooler intervals short-lived.

Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?


Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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