Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Sunday 2 Apr - Tuesday 11 Apr
The start of this period is most likely to be changeable. Showers or longer spells of rain remain prevalent, with heavy bursts still likely in places on Sunday. Drier and brighter interludes are possible as well, mainly across western regions, however these may be short-lived as further bands of rain are expected to arrive from the west. Eastern coasts may be rather grey and misty at times. The latter part of the period looks likely to become more settled, albeit with some wetter interludes, these most likely in the south and west of the country. Stronger winds at times, but temperatures remaining close to average, feeling pleasant in any sunshine. There is potential for overnight frost where skies are clear in the north and east.
Wednesday 12 Apr - Wednesday 26 Apr
Throughout this period there is likely to be a split in conditions between the north and south of the UK. Any unsettled weather is likely to take a southerly track, while higher pressure to the north should provide some generally drier weather here. Overall, it is likely to be somewhat drier than March across the country. Temperatures are uncertain, but there is a potential for cooler conditions at times, especially in the north and east, with a chance of overnight frosts.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).