Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Saturday 26 Oct - Monday 4 Nov
Temperatures likely closer to average than of late with an often brisk westerly flow bringing systems in from the Atlantic. Some longer spells of rain may spread erratically southeastwards across parts of the UK at the start of the weekend, especially in the north and perhaps accompanied by windy conditions, but with a trend for high pressure to build close to the UK later in the weekend and beyond into early November. This should offer some longer drier spells of weather, with an increased chance of frost and fog, which could be slow to clear in places. However, it may remain rather breezy or windy at times in the northwest, with some occasional outbreaks of rain here.
Tuesday 5 Nov - Tuesday 19 Nov
After a potentially settled start to November, with high pressure often in the vicinity of the UK leading to more widely drier conditions and the chance of frost and fog, perhaps slow to clear in places, it is likely this will be increasingly displaced to allow lower pressure to become more dominant with time. As such, there will be an increasing chance of rain or showers becoming more prevalent towards mid-November. Temperatures may initially be below average, but will probably recover closer to average with the onset of more unsettled conditions.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).