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Long range forecast

Long range forecast

Friday 7 Oct - Sunday 16 Oct

This period will see generally clear or sunny spells and showers for many throughout. Some areas in the southeast may remain dry, while the heaviest and most frequent showers persist in the west and northwest. Confidence remains low, with the possibility of high pressure building across the UK at some point through this period. However, frontal systems are likely to continue to bring periods of rain. We can expect generally breezy conditions throughout, with some brisker winds in the north and coastal gales possible, most likely to be earlier in this period. Temperatures will be close to normal throughout, but slightly below in northern areas, and trending slightly above in the south for a time. There is the possibility for some chilly nights, with potential mist or fog.

Monday 17 Oct - Monday 31 Oct

Confidence remains low for this period. Sunny spells and showers are likely to persist across the UK, however there is the possibility for a deep low pressure system. This would likely bring periods of rain; however, some drier spells and potential mist and fog may be expected too, most likely at the beginning of the period. Temperatures likely to remain above normal throughout.

Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?


Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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