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Long range forecast

Long range forecast

Saturday 27 Jul - Monday 5 Aug

Sunny spells and showers, some of which could be heavy and thundery, are expected across many parts of the UK on Saturday, together with below average temperatures. By Sunday drier weather is likely to develop, with spells of sunshine across most parts and temperatures close to normal. It is uncertain how long this mainly dry spell will last, but into the following week a more changeable pattern will probably become established. This is likely to see showers or longer spells of rain, some of which could be heavy and thundery, interspersed with some intervals of dry, bright weather. Regional details are uncertain, but the wettest weather will probably be across northern and western areas, with the south and east drier. Temperatures will probably be close to average or slightly above.

Tuesday 6 Aug - Tuesday 20 Aug

No single weather type is expected to dominate through this period. Some spells of dry, settled weather will likely alternate with wetter, cloudier conditions at times. The wettest conditions will probably be in the northwest, with the southeast tending to be driest. Through the period as a whole, warmer than average conditions are more probable, perhaps with some short-lived hot spells.

Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?


Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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