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Long range forecast

Long range forecast

Monday 28 Jun - Wednesday 7 Jul

Monday will likely see outbreaks of rain or showers, potentially heavy and thundery, across the south of the UK. Elsewhere it will likely be drier with sunny spells and variable cloud. Temperatures will be warm for most, though locally suppressed under the unsettled weather. Confidence is lower later in the period, although on balance a lot of fine and dry weather is most likely, however, there are signals for some brief unsettled periods with southern and eastern areas seeing showers, and perhaps more prolonged rain in the northwest. Temperatures will most likely be above normal, with the potential for some very warm or hot days in the south. Winds will likely be light to moderate throughout, with a westerly flow across northern areas, and an easterly flow across the south.

Thursday 8 Jul - Thursday 22 Jul

Although confidence remains low, in general settled conditions are likely, with a few brief unsettled spells possible. Some northwestern areas will likely see brief spells rain and cloudy conditions at times, as well as a continued risk for periods of heavy rain or thunderstorms especially across the south. Above-average temperatures continue to be well signalled, with the chance of some very warm or hot days to come.

Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?


Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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