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Long range forecast

Long range forecast

Thursday 2 Feb - Saturday 11 Feb

On Thursday, cloud and outbreaks of rain will slowly move across the north of the UK, with heavier bursts for the northwest at first, while the south is more likely to stay dry with sunny intervals. Strong winds will mainly confine to the north early in the day. Towards the weekend and into next week, uncertainty is high regarding a regional split of conditions. The most likely scenario brings showers, longer spells of rain and strong winds to the north, with the wettest conditions in the northwest. The south is more likely to remain largely dry with lighter winds. Temperatures are expected to remain near to or slightly above average for most, although clearer conditions bring a risk of overnight fog and frost for the south.

Sunday 12 Feb - Sunday 26 Feb

While uncertain, a continuation of the regional divide between the north and south is expected as the broad theme for this period. Unsettled conditions are more likely to dominate in the north while the south remains settled and drier. A spell of more widely spread wet and windy weather is likely to persist for several days across all areas, although wettest conditions will focus in the west. Temperatures are most likely to remain around average or above.

Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?


Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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