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Long range forecast

Long range forecast

Thursday 27 Jan - Saturday 5 Feb

Rain will clear in the far southeast during the day, however blustery showers will continue for northeastern areas, with a risk of some gales. Otherwise, a fine and dry start to the period with variable cloud, this bringing settled conditions across the south with overnight frost and some morning fog patches in areas with higher elevation. Temperatures likely to be close to average in the south, whereas milder in the north, trending slightly above normal. Settled conditions looking to continue to dominate through the remainder of January, however, rain or showers at times for the north and northwest, with occasional strong winds here. Heading into February there is an increasing likelihood of more unsettled conditions.

Sunday 6 Feb - Sunday 20 Feb

Early February is likely to see a continuation of a north/south split with more settled and cloudy weather expected in the south, and generally drier than average, while the north will be more changeable, milder, with some spells of rain. There is an increased likelihood of more unsettled conditions becoming established, with the northwest likely to be the wettest area, but showers or longer spells of rain may spread to most areas at times, with the southeast likely to be the driest. Spells of strong winds are likely to develop more widely at times. Temperatures likely to be near or slightly above average although short lived colder interludes are possible. Any snow likely to be restricted to high ground in the north.

Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?


Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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