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Long range forecast

Long range forecast

Saturday 2 Jul - Monday 11 Jul

While the start of the period will see more settled conditions begin to establish themselves across the south, it will remain generally unsettled in the north, with cloud and rain in the northwest moving southwards through Saturday, but weakening. Scotland and Northern Ireland may see some heavy showers and possibly thunderstorms. Into next week, it will likely remain dry across the south and southwest, while risk of more unsettled conditions remains in the north, with showers at times, and occasionally some longer spells of rain. Eastern and southern areas are likely to stay dry, but with a low risk of a generally isolated shower at times. Temperatures are expected to be close to or slightly below normal in the north but above normal in the south.

Tuesday 12 Jul - Tuesday 26 Jul

There is a good chance of more settled conditions prevailing through the middle and later parts of July, although some northern areas may see spells of rain or showers at times, especially earlier in the period. These spells could extend across the country at times, but in general the south will see the best of the settled conditions. Temperatures are likely to be close to or a little above average initially but trending towards widely warm conditions later, especially across the south.

Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?


Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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