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Long range forecast

Long range forecast

Saturday 4 Apr - Monday 13 Apr

Through the beginning of the period unsettled conditions across the north are likely to spread southwards. The northwest will see the worst of the weather with spells of heavy rain and strong winds interspersed with sunshine and showers whilst the southeast should stay drier and brighter. Towards the middle of April the weather may turn more changeable with a few days of rain and strong winds alternating with periods of sunshine and showers for much of the UK. Any showers may turn to a mix of sleet and snow over northern hills. Temperatures are likely to be around normal for the time of year. During any more settled periods, mild days are likely to give way to cold nights.

Tuesday 14 Apr - Tuesday 28 Apr

It is most likely that this period will see spells of unsettled conditions, bringing wet and windy weather, interspersed with quieter interludes of dry and settled weather. The unsettled periods could see showers turning wintry over the higher ground in the north. The settled periods should see plenty of clear spells and sunshine, with the driest conditions expected in the southeast of the UK. Temperatures should remain around normal but with cold nights giving way to warmer days.

Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?


Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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