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Long range forecast

Long range forecast

Sunday 2 Feb - Tuesday 11 Feb

After a wet and windy day Sunday, the beginning of next week will remain unsettled with outbreaks of rain or showers. Thereafter, we should see the dominance of high pressure across the UK. This will allow a shift towards more settled conditions with a good deal of sunshine across most parts. Northern and eastern areas are likely to start this period cold with a chance of wintry showers, these likely falling as snow to relatively low levels at times. Towards the end of next week, the settled weather will spread further east with plenty of sunny spells by day and a risk of frost by night. Following this, it looks to stay mostly dry but it may turn increasingly cloudy towards the middle of February with possible overnight fog.

Tuesday 11 Feb - Tuesday 25 Feb

This period seems to trend towards a more typical northwest/southeast divide. The southeast should hold on to the drier and calmer weather for a while longer with a continued risk of overnight frost and fog. Further north, it will turn increasingly unsettled with outbreaks of rain and strong winds at times. Temperatures will gradually return towards normal, but will remain a little below average during the settled spell in the south.

Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?


Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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