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Long range forecast

Long range forecast

Sunday 29 Nov - Tuesday 8 Dec

Into the end of November and the start of December a high pressure system looks to maintain settled conditions across the south of the UK, with outbreaks of rain and strong winds likely, but not restricted to, northern and western regions. Temperatures near normal with overnight frosts and some mist and fog in places. The confidence for how this high pressure system then develops into the early December is low, with solutions showing equal likelihood for settled and unsettled weather to develop. Most confidence can be placed in that the south is likely to continue to see the majority of fine and settled conditions, and the north and west seeing the worst of any unsettled conditions.

Tuesday 8 Dec - Tuesday 22 Dec

The confidence for the outlook into December is low, but the general trend suggests typical early winter weather with periods of persistent rain and showery interludes. Overall the best of the driest and brightest weather in the south and east. Frost and fog patches are likely during any settled spells, and any wintry precipitation is likely in cooler and more unsettled spells over high ground of the north and northwest. There is a risk of gales, with the strongest winds being seen to the north and northwest.

Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?


Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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