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Long range forecast

Long range forecast

Friday 10 Jul - Sunday 19 Jul

Cloudy for many with showers, these heaviest in eastern parts where the winds may be stronger also. Becoming largely dry in western areas with some good spells of sunshine. Looking further ahead, a north/ south split across the UK seems most likely. Northern and northwestern areas are expected to see further spells of rain, accompanied by strong winds, with the possibility of these spreading to some other areas at times. Further south however, there should be more in the way of dry weather, though even here, there is still the possibility of some showers, or longer spells of rain. Temperatures are likely to be either around or on the warmer side of average, with the warmest conditions likely in the southeast.

Monday 20 Jul - Monday 3 Aug

Although confidence remains low throughout this period, the preferred scenario favours a more settled regime. There should be plenty of dry, fine weather around, though there is still the risk of occasional bouts of rain and strong winds. Such spells are mostly likely across the north and west, but they could spread to other areas at times. Temperatures generally around average, with any periods of particularly warm weather most likely being short-lived.

Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?


Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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