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Long range forecast

Long range forecast

Wednesday 22 Jan - Friday 31 Jan

After a frosty start on Wednesday, most places are expected to be cloudy, but mostly dry with light winds. The odd spot of rain is possible, this becoming more persistent over the north of Scotland. Looking further into the week the south will be dry and cloudy with light winds whilst the north could be wetter and windier at times. Later on in this period, some rain may briefly spread further southeast across the UK, although the most unsettled weather is likely to remain in the north and northwest, where some hill snow is possible. Further southeast drier spells will be accompanied by the best brightness, along with the greatest risk of fog and frost. Temperatures will generally be near average, although a little below at times in the north.

Friday 31 Jan - Friday 14 Feb

Through the first half of February, we are likely to see a north/south split continuing; with the north being more unsettled than the south. The heaviest of the rainfall and strongest winds are likely to be seen across the northwest. The southeast is more likely to see drier, brighter conditions with light winds. There is potentially a greater risk of frost and fog patches developing towards the southeast. During colder, showery interludes, any snow will most likely be over higher ground in the north, but it could fall to lower levels at times. Temperatures will remain close to or above average through the period, though will likely fluctuate as frontal systems pass through, especially in the north.

Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?


Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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