As summer comes to an end, the UK is already experiencing a distinctly autumnal feel.
The latest Met Office 10-Day Trend points to a period dominated by unsettled conditions, with low pressure systems bringing spells of rain, showers, and blustery winds. While there are hints of more settled weather further ahead, the overall picture is one of changeable conditions, typical for the transition from summer to autumn.
Pressure and confidence charts
The Met Office uses a range of probabilistic charts to help forecast the coming days. The pressure trend chart is particularly useful for understanding the likelihood of low or high pressure dominating. As we look further into the future, the chart shows a strong signal for low pressure, meaning unsettled weather is expected to persist for much of the next 10 days.
There are some signs of higher pressure and potentially more settled conditions as we move further ahead, but forecasts at longer lead times should be treated with caution. The confidence index, another key chart, shows that forecast confidence generally decreases as we look further ahead. Notably, confidence for this coming weekend, particularly Saturday, is a little lower than average, reflecting uncertainty in the exact details of the weather systems involved. However, confidence picks up again for the start and middle of next week, with low pressure expected to remain the dominant feature.
READ MORE: Met Office deep dive: a change in the weather and a look back at summer
Current conditions and the immediate outlook
Looking ahead to Thursday, showers will become increasingly widespread, starting mainly in the west but eventually affecting all areas. Some of these showers could be heavy and thundery, with blustery winds particularly across western parts. There is also a chance of more persistent rain across Northern Ireland and possibly western Scotland. As we move into Friday, the southeast may see a cloudy start, but the day will generally be showery, with a mix of sunny spells and further heavy, blustery showers. The heaviest showers are likely in western and northwestern areas, where the greatest impacts from high rainfall totals and thunder are expected.
Weekend outlook: deep low pressure and heavy rain
As we approach the weekend, attention turns to developments in the Atlantic. A couple of low-pressure centres, are set to interact with the jet stream. These systems are forecast to merge and intensify, resulting in a relatively deep area of low pressure moving towards the UK. This will bring a spell of unseasonably wet and windy weather, particularly on Saturday.
Most areas will see heavy rain at some point on Saturday, with the east likely to experience a delay before the rain arrives. In Shetland, for example, the rain may not reach until overnight into Sunday. Alongside the rain, blustery winds are expected, with the strongest gusts likely in the southwest and possibly up through the Bristol Channel. While coastal gales are not unusual for the time of year, they are not expected to be especially hazardous for most places. However, those with outdoor plans or temporary structures should be aware of the potential for disruption.
READ MORE: When does Autumn officially start?
It is worth noting that previous model runs had suggested the possibility of an even deeper low-pressure system, with stronger winds and a separate low further south. If that scenario had materialised, the winds would have been more impactful. As it stands, the forecast points to a particularly blustery, windy day, but nothing that should cause significant issues for most.
Sunday and the start of next week: showers and a mobile westerly pattern
As the rain and low pressure move away to the north overnight into Sunday, conditions will remain blustery, with further showers arriving from the west. However, Sunday is expected to be the drier day of the weekend for many, especially across central and eastern parts, where most showers may be avoided.
One aspect to highlight is the variation in model runs regarding the position of the low-pressure system on Saturday. The latest data shows relatively good agreement that the system will move through the northern half of the UK, whereas earlier runs had it further south, bringing more unsettled weather. This uncertainty is reflected in the lower-than-average confidence for the weekend forecast. As the models converge, the forecast becomes clearer, but some details, such as the timing and location of the heaviest rain and strongest winds, remain subject to change.
Rainfall totals and regional differences
The mobile westerly pattern means that weather systems will continue to arrive from the Atlantic, bringing the wettest conditions to western areas. Over the next five days, some western high ground could see rainfall totals in excess of 100 millimetres, which may be enough to cause localised flooding if intense downpours occur. Friday and Saturday are the days most likely to see heavy showers and persistent rain bands. In contrast, eastern areas are expected to see much less rain, with some locations receiving less than 10 millimetres over the same period.
READ MORE: When is a hurricane not a hurricane?
Despite the generally unsettled and autumnal feel, the lack of significant rainfall in the east will do little to alleviate the very dry conditions experienced through spring and much of summer. This regional disparity is a key feature of the current weather pattern.
Looking further ahead: polar maritime air and continued changeability
As we move into next week, the low-pressure system is likely to clear away to the north, leaving the UK in a standard polar maritime air mass. This will bring showers from the northwest, with western and northwestern parts again bearing the brunt of the heaviest rain. Meanwhile, the east and southeast will have a greater chance of staying dry.
Monday is expected to be a showery day for many, followed by a possible ridge of high pressure on Tuesday, which could bring a brief lull in the unsettled weather. However, this respite is likely to be short-lived, as further low-pressure systems and frontal systems are set to arrive from the Atlantic. The detail of these systems is difficult to pin down at this lead time, but the overall trend is for continued spells of unsettled weather.
Pressure and rainfall anomalies: a wetter than average start to autumn
The ECMWF anomaly charts provide further insight into the coming week. The pressure anomaly chart shows that lower than average pressure is most likely for the week starting 1 September, with the centre of low pressure expected to be towards the north of the UK. This aligns with the forecast for an unsettled start to meteorological autumn.
The rainfall anomaly chart suggests that conditions will be wetter than average, particularly across western areas. Even in the east, rainfall is expected to be above average, though not to the same extent as in the west. This marks a significant change from the dry conditions experienced through much of the summer.
READ MORE: 600-mile rainstorm? Hotter than Ibiza? Met Office weather headline review
Temperatures: around average, with some pleasant spells
Temperature-wise, values are expected to be around average for most places. At this time of year, it will feel cooler when wind and rain are present, but any dry, sunnier periods at the start of September should still feel pleasantly warm. Overall, next week will remain changeable and at times quite unsettled, with spells of rain, showers, and blustery winds. The heaviest rain is likely in the west, with less making it to the east, where many areas are in need of some decent rainfall. Nonetheless, some rain is expected to make its way through, and temperatures should be warm enough during any settled spells.
In summary, the latest Met Office 10-Day Trend points to a period of unsettled weather as autumn begins. Low pressure systems will dominate, bringing spells of rain, showers, and blustery winds, particularly to western areas. While there may be brief periods of more settled weather, the overall outlook is for continued changeability, with wetter than average conditions expected for the start of September. Temperatures will be around average, with some pleasant spells possible during any breaks in the unsettled weather.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
