After an exceptionally dry and often hot spell across the UK, many people will be wondering when meaningful rainfall might return.
However, the outlook for the next 10 days suggests that high pressure will continue to dominate, bringing largely settled conditions for most areas. While there are tentative signs of a more changeable pattern developing towards the end of the period, confidence in any significant shift remains low.
Forecast models consistently indicate high pressure remaining close to the UK through much of the coming week. Although its exact position may fluctuate, the overall signal points towards predominantly dry weather with rainfall amounts generally below average.
Warm conditions continue into Thursday
Thursday is expected to be another warm and largely sunny day for many parts of the country. Some areas, particularly in the east, may begin the day with patches of low cloud drifting in from the North Sea, but this should largely clear to allow plenty of sunshine.
Temperatures are likely to climb into the high 20s Celsius widely, with a few locations potentially reaching the low 30s once again. Eastern coastal areas will remain somewhat cooler thanks to onshore breezes. There is a small chance of a few showers developing in the southwest later in the day, although many places will remain dry.
Whilst the heat is starting to ease for many and this weekend will be less hot, the strength of the sunshine is unrelated to the temperature🌡️
— Met Office (@metoffice) July 16, 2026
UV levels will be high or very high in the coming days, so remember to protect your skin and seek shade through the midday hours☀️😎 pic.twitter.com/eAIX1nRK3B
A fresher feel through the weekend
As we move into Friday and the weekend, a subtle change in airflow is expected. High pressure will become centred further to the northwest, allowing a northerly wind to develop across the UK.
This will bring a fresher feel for many areas, particularly across England and Wales where temperatures will ease back from the recent heat. That said, conditions will remain pleasantly warm, especially in sunshine. Most areas will continue to enjoy lengthy dry spells and bright conditions.
A few showers may develop across southern and southeastern areas on Friday, with the slight possibility of thunder mixed in. However, any rainfall is likely to be highly localised and short-lived. Across eastern Scotland, occasional light rain is also possible as weather fronts brush northern parts of the country.
Scotland most likely to see rain
Throughout the weekend, northern Scotland has the greatest chance of seeing some rainfall. Outbreaks of rain may move southwards from the north at times, particularly on Saturday and Sunday.
Elsewhere, rainfall opportunities remain limited. England, Wales and Northern Ireland are expected to stay largely dry, with sunny spells continuing to dominate. While temperatures will be lower than those experienced during the recent heatwaves, conditions should still feel warm for many.
Interestingly, some northeastern areas of Scotland, including Edinburgh, may see temperatures rise slightly compared with recent days as the persistent easterly breeze weakens.
READ MORE: Deep Dive: Heatwaves, dry ground and warming seas
Next week: still mainly dry
Looking ahead to next week, confidence remains relatively high that high pressure will continue to exert a strong influence over the UK's weather.
Monday and Tuesday are expected to be particularly dry, with rainfall totals likely to remain well below average. The most likely weather pattern places high pressure to the west of the UK, maintaining settled conditions across much of the country.
By the middle of the week, there are suggestions that high pressure may begin to weaken slightly or drift further southwest. This could allow somewhat fresher air to filter southwards from the northwest, but current indications still favour predominantly dry weather for most regions.
Could things turn more changeable?
The best chance of a more significant change arrives towards the end of the forecast period, around 25–26 July.
Forecast guidance suggests that low pressure developing over the Atlantic could begin to erode the strong area of high pressure that has dominated recent weeks. If this scenario develops, more unsettled conditions could gradually reach at least northern parts of the UK, bringing an increased risk of rain and stronger winds.
However, confidence in this outcome remains relatively low. The more established high pressure becomes, the harder it is for Atlantic weather systems to break through. As a result, the most likely outcome remains one of predominantly dry weather, even if there is a growing chance of change later on.
You can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
