There are growing signs that temperatures could rise across parts of the UK this weekend, bringing a return to warmer conditions.
However, despite some early summer warmth being possible, confidence in any widespread or sustained heatwave currently remains low. Current indications point towards a more modest and short-lived warm spell, rather than a repeat of the notable conditions experienced at the end of May.
A change from the unsettled pattern
After a cooler and more unsettled spell through much of the week, the weather pattern is expected to shift slightly as higher pressure begins to exert some influence. This should bring a reduction in the frequency of showers, along with increasing amounts of sunshine, particularly across southern parts of the UK.
Saturday is likely to see a largely dry day for many, with some sunshine developing, although cloudier conditions may persist across parts of the northwest. Here, some patchy rain or drizzle is possible at times, especially near western-facing coasts and higher ground.
Temperatures are expected to respond accordingly, with a noticeable increase compared to earlier in the week. It will feel warmer and more humid, particularly in the south where values are likely to rise above the seasonal average. Even so, the presence of cloud and a light breeze in some regions may prevent temperatures from rising particularly sharply.
Sunday brings the warmest conditions
Sunday currently looks set to be the warmest day of the weekend, with many areas enjoying dry conditions and spells of sunshine. The best of the brightness is expected southern areas, where temperatures may climb further and feel locally very warm.
However, this warmth is unlikely to be widespread across the UK, with northern and northwestern areas more prone to cloud and occasional light rain or drizzle. A few showers may also develop later in the day, particularly in western areas, which would introduce some uncertainty into how long any warm and sunny spells persist.
READ MORE: Week ahead: Changeable start but warmer weather on the way?
Staying safe
People heading to the coast should be mindful that sea surface temperatures are not as high as they would be in mid-summer. While seasonal warming is underway current sea surface temperatures range from approximately 9°C around Scotland to 13°C around the south west of the England.
You can find water safety advice on our website and in the refreshed Met Office app, now featuring a dedicated beach forecast with tide times, wave heights and sea-surface temperatures, as well as guidance on UV and pollen levels.
Why the forecast is uncertain
A key message with this forecast is the level of uncertainty. The positioning and strength of the developing area of high pressure remain unclear, and this has a major influence on the extent and intensity of any warm air across the UK.
Forecast confidence is therefore limited in terms of both the exact temperature ranges and how widespread the warmest conditions will be. This uncertainty means that while some locations may briefly flirt with higher temperatures, a consistent and widespread heat signal is not evident at this stage.
Not a repeat of late May
It is important to emphasise that this setup is very different to the conditions seen at the end of May. Those earlier high temperatures were associated with a well-established and persistent area of high pressure, allowing for several consecutive days of strong sunshine, light winds and steadily rising temperatures.
In contrast, the current situation is less settled. The high pressure expected this weekend is weaker and less firmly in place, with the potential for cloud, showers and breezier conditions to interrupt any warm spells.
Crucially, official heatwave criteria require temperatures to meet or exceed specific thresholds over several consecutive days. At present, there is little evidence to suggest that these conditions will be met across a wide enough area for long enough to constitute a formal heatwave.
A mixed picture across the UK
Another factor limiting the likelihood of a heatwave is the regional variation expected across the UK. While southern areas have the best chance of seeing warmer weather, northern and western regions are more likely to experience greater cloud cover and occasional rain.
This contrast will prevent temperatures from becoming uniform across the country and reinforces the idea of a mixed rather than consistently hot spell.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
