Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
There are currently no active notifications.
Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Significant geomagnetic activity is not expected, with the aurora likely limited to normal background visibility levels.
Southern Hemisphere
Significant geomagnetic activity is not expected, with the aurora likely limited to normal background visibility levels.
Issued at:
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate class flares expected with slight chance of X-class (Strong) flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate with one Moderate class flare, from the sunspot region in the northwest. This is the most active of the nine regions currently on the Earth-facing disc, but has been showing some apparent weakening as it approaches the limb. The other regions have been less active with occasional Common-class flares observed. The largest of these was from the region just west of north-centre at 19/1708 UTC, which is dominated by a single leader and some much smaller peripheral spots. The largest region on the disc is located in the south-centre disc, however this has remained magnetically simple and inactive. Some growth was observed in small spots in the southwest, southeast and northwest, however these remain magnetically simple.
No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed, however a filament eruption, which is where a line of plasma material is ejected from the Sun, was observed southeast of centre disc around 19/2300 UTC. It is currently too early to ascertain if a CME was produced.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Ongoing fast winds from a coronal hole were observed. Solar wind speed was slightly elevated to elevated (450-530km/s). Interplanetary Magnetic field, Bt, was Weak with the north-south component also Weak, but favouring a southward orientation. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3), but with Active (Kp 4) intervals 19/0600-0900UTC and 19/2100-20/0000UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisted at background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate activity is expected, with isolated Moderate-class flares expected. There is a slight chance of Strong-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no CME arrivals expected at Earth, however a glancing impact from the CME early on 18 Jan cannot be completely ruled out late on day 1 (20 Jan). Otherwise, current coronal hole sourced fast winds are expected to continue before gradually easing from late day 2 (21 Jan) onward. Mainly Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity is expected, with a chance of Active intervals.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring. However, there is a slight chance of this rising in response to any significant flares that occur.
Issued at:
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: