Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora oval is expected to remain predominantly at background levels, with widespread aurora sightings considered unlikely. There is a chance of occasional minor enhancements during the UTC nights of the 24th and 25th. Any visible aurora is expected to be limited to the far north of Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are sufficiently clear.
Southern Hemisphere
A minor enhancement to the auroral oval is likely in the UTC day of Tuesday 22 October. Any visible aurora is expected to be limited to high geomagnetic latitudes, and should soon fade after midweek UTC.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Increasing chance of radio blackouts.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Activity was low and confined to Common-class flares.
There are seven numbered sunspot regions on the visible disc, and a new region rotating onto the southeast limb. None of the regions are especially large, magnetically complex or showing any significant changes. However, AR3859, which is approaching the west limb, has historically had a moderately complex magnetic structure.
A filament eruption was observed in centre disk around 22/0500UTC but no coronal mass ejection (CME) has yet been identified. Another filament eruption occurred around 22/1715 UTC in the northwest quadrant. This filament was small but an associated CME was generated. Analysis is currently being undertaken.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of a slow regime. The interplanetary magnetic field was at Background levels, with the north-south component negative until the evening, then becoming positive. The net result of the above solar wind measures was Quiet to Unsettled.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is likely to be Low, with a chance of Moderate activity from isolated Moderate-class flares initially, until new or returning regions rotate onto the visible disc. Several notable active regions may arrive from behind the eastern limb, potentially increasing the solar activity later in the period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Currently there are no Earth-directed CMEs in the forecast, although modelling of the CME from the small filament eruption in the northwest on the 22nd Oct is awaited. Initial expectations are that the bulk of the CME will not be Earth directed. A weak solar wind enhancement may become established today from a coronal hole feature, although this is now looking increasingly unlikely. More likely is the arrival of a solar wind enhancement from a coronal hole which is almost centre disc, later in the forecast period. Overall background solar winds are expected to predominate, with mainly Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity. and a slight chance of Minor geomagnetic storm levels being reached at times later in the forecast period.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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