El Niño conditions have now developed in the tropical Pacific, marking the start of a new phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle for 2026.
This transition has now been formally declared by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which today confirmed that El Niño has developed and issued an El Niño Advisory, indicating that the conditions are observed and expected to continue
This transition has been anticipated for some time, with forecasts over recent months consistently indicating an increased likelihood that El Niño would form early this summer.
The focus is now turning to the potential strength of this event and its impacts.
Current seasonal forecast guidance suggests that the developing El Niño is likely to be a very strong event, with sea‑surface temperature anomalies likely to exceed 2°C in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, which would be notable by historical standards and some forecasts suggesting much higher values that would be of record strength.
Either way, a large El Niño is now underway, and it will persist and grow through the remainder of the year. Nevertheless, there is still significant uncertainty on how intense the event may ultimately become.
Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long-Range Forecasting at the Met Office, said:
“Met Office predictions have been signalling for some time that this latest El Niño is likely to be a significant event – perhaps one of the most intense on record - with the potential to bring severe impacts to a number of regions of the world as the event unfolds.
“It is also highly likely that the El Niño will cause a temporary spike in global annual temperature with the residual heat potentially making next year the hottest in the global series from 1850.”
Global impacts
El Niño does not just affect the tropical Pacific Ocean it can influence weather patterns across large parts of the globe. A warming in the Pacific alters atmospheric circulation, including the position of the jet stream and the distribution of tropical rainfall. These changes can shift storm tracks and influence temperature and rainfall thousands of miles away.
El Niño increases the risk of drier conditions in parts of Indonesia, Australia, India and central and equatorial South America. Wetter conditions are likely in some other regions of South America and the southern United States.
UK & North Europe impacts
El Niño is just one of several climate drivers influencing weather patterns in Europe and the UK. Its impacts here in the UK are typically indirect, but it can increase the likelihood of more unsettled conditions later in the year, including a higher chance of milder, wetter and windier weather during autumn and early winter. El Niño can also be associated with colder and calmer late winter periods in the UK. However, any potential impacts will be assessed in more detail later in the year as forecasts evolve.
Looking ahead
While early signals point towards a likely strong event, the eventual peak strength and associated impacts will become clearer in the coming months.
The Met Office will continue to update its predictions and closely monitor the developing situation and will assess the potential impacts for the UK and conditions around the world as forecasts evolve.