As we head into the weekend, the overall weather pattern remains remarkably similar to what we experienced this time last week.
Although conditions will turn somewhat drier compared to the preceding days, low pressure continues to dominate, meaning showers and spells of rain are still very much part of the picture. Some areas may continue to see ongoing impacts simply because the ground is already saturated after several weeks of persistent wet weather.
A familiar setup with lingering low pressure
The main feature influencing the UK’s weather this weekend is an area of low pressure situated to the southwest. This system isn’t being steered along by the jet stream, which lies far to the south across Spain and Portugal. As a result, the low is slow-moving and will gradually weaken in place rather than sweeping through quickly. This sluggish behaviour means its associated showers will drift around different parts of the country as the weekend progresses, sometimes clustering in the same regions that have been affected repeatedly in recent weeks.
Because of the way winds circulate anticlockwise around low pressure, moisture is being continually drawn into three key areas: southwest England, eastern Northern Ireland, and eastern Scotland.
READ MORE: Deep dive: why the jet stream is delivering exceptional rain across Europe
These same regions have repeatedly seen the heaviest rainfall recently, and although rainfall totals this weekend are not expected to be excessive, any further wet weather could cause localised issues due to the cumulative effect of previous downpours.
Rainfall patterns through the weekend
Rainfall accumulation charts show that, while rainfall amounts are not especially large, they are enough to maintain concerns in those already sensitive areas. By the end of Sunday, the key zones of wetter conditions stand out clearly once again. In the southwest, the persistent feed of moisture continues from the Atlantic, while across eastern Northern Ireland, showers will be fed inland from the Irish Sea. In eastern Scotland, a sustained onshore flow is set to bring repeated bursts of rain.
Elsewhere, showers will be more variable and their exact position may shift depending on how the low-pressure meanders. Forecasters advise not to take these details too literally, as the system’s slow movement means shower bands could repeatedly reorganise or drift across different locations. However, most parts of the UK should be prepared for at least some showery intervals over the weekend.
Saturday: Showers, but some brighter spots too
Saturday begins with a focus of heavy showers for Wales and southwest England, likely moving into parts of Northern Ireland later in the day. The unsettled theme extends across northern England and parts of the Midlands, where showers may also crop up. In contrast, eastern England looks to stay largely sheltered from the worst of the rainfall, with fewer showers and a better chance of some dry intervals.
Meanwhile, western Scotland finds itself in a comparatively sheltered position thanks to the southeasterly breeze. This area is expected to be mostly dry and fine, enjoying the greatest likelihood of sunshine through the day. However, eastern Scotland will continue to receive a feed of rain off the North Sea, with some snow possible over the higher hills. Snowfall amounts are not expected to be significant as milder air filters in, but the combination of rain, sleet and hill snow may still make conditions feel wintry.
Temperatures: Slightly above average for many
Temperatures this weekend will sit close to or just above the seasonal average for mid-February across England and Wales, with highs of around 10°C to 11°C. For these areas, the air will feel relatively mild compared to the colder weather earlier in the month.
Further north, however, it’s a different story. Parts of Scotland, particularly in the east and northeast, will remain on the cold side. Highs here are expected to reach only 5°C to 7°C, and the brisk wind will make it feel noticeably colder. Despite the modest rise in temperatures compared to previous days, the combination of wind and moisture will create a distinctly chilly feel at times.
READ MORE: 10‑day trend: little sign of major change as the unsettled pattern continues
Sunday: Slow‑moving showers and continued uncertainty
As the low-pressure system continues to weaken on Sunday, its slow movement means that rainfall patterns may be less well-defined. Bands of showers could linger across eastern Scotland, again raising concerns about the cumulative impact of wet weather in that region. Northeast England could see a wet start, although this depends on how the low evolves in the early hours of the day.
On the whole, England and Wales may see more breaks in the cloud and a better chance of sunny spells developing during the day. This will offer a welcome respite from the wetter conditions many have experienced recently. Once again, western Scotland looks favoured for dry and brighter weather thanks to shelter from the prevailing southeasterly flow.
While the low-pressure system gradually fills and weakens, its influence on the UK’s weather will continue through the weekend. Showers remain possible almost anywhere, but the best of the sunshine is likely across western Scotland and, at times, England and Wales. Temperatures trend close to seasonal norms for mid-February, though the far northeast will stay colder than average.
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