Different amounts of future warming

The worst impacts of climate change may be avoided by limiting future global warming. These ‘mitigation’ efforts cut emissions of greenhouse gases.

Nevertheless, some impacts remain unavoidable. Effective 'adaptation' strategies are needed to help us prepare for them.

Understanding the relationship between mitigation and adaptation approaches is crucial. This helps identify shared benefits of both strategies.

Some of the key questions we are trying to answer are:

• What are the physical impacts of mitigation and adaptation actions?

• What are the related opportunities, trade-offs and co-benefits of mitigation and adaptation actions?

• How does this change across different levels of warming (e.g. 1.5ºC, 2ºC and higher)?

How do we answer these questions?

We produce a range of deliverables to help answer this question. Our verbal and written advice includes briefings, reports, expert reviews, model development, and website content.

Here are some of the main things we deliver:

Support for UNFCCC COP

Each year, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) holds an annual action summit on climate change, the Conference of the Parties (COP) meeting. Delegates from around the world come together to discuss the science of climate change. They lay out their own countries’ plans and ambitions to meet climate targets and explore possible solutions. The Met Office provides support to this important conference.

• Read more about how the Met Office contributes to COP

The Met Office website

We update the climate science pages of Met Office website. This includes a central resource that ties together information on extreme weather events.

• View the latest research on extreme weather events

Thresholds and tipping points

We provide updated assessments of tipping points and thresholds in the climate system.

• Risk management of climate thresholds and feedbacks:

  • Introduction and synthesis (PDF - 476KB)

  • Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) (PDF - 497KB)

  • Ice sheets (PDF - 318KB)

  • Tropical forests (PDF - 433KB)

  • A seasonally ice-free Arctic (PDF - 425KB)

  • Permafrost (PDF - 483KB)

Updates to climate models

UKESM1 and HadGEM3-GC3.1 are two state-of-the-art climate models. We use these to study the Earth-system and climate. They are both the result of years of work, featuring a host of advances over previous models.

• Read more about UKESM1 and HadGEM3-GC3.1

Research from the Met Office Hadley Centre

Scientists at the Met Office Hadley Centre also publish papers in leading scientific journals. The team collaborates with other institutes from around the world.

Names in bold are lead authors from the Met Office.

2020 papers

• Jones et al. The impact of a simple representation of non-structural carbohydrates on the simulated response of tropical forests to drought
• van Vuuren et al. The costs of achieving climate targets and the sources of uncertainty
• Paschalis et al. Rainfall manipulation experiments as simulated by terrestrial biosphere models: Where do we stand?
• Undorf et al. Learning from the 2018 heatwave in the context of climate change: are high-temperature extremes important for adaptation in Scotland?
• Deva et al. Enhanced Leaf Cooling Is a Pathway to Heat Tolerance in Common Bean

2019 papers

• Robertson. The Local Biophysical Response to Land-Use Change in HadGEM2-ES
• Turnock et al. The impact of climate mitigation measures on near term climate forcers
• Christidis et al. Anthropogenic climate change and heat effects on health
• Weijer et al. Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A Review and Synthesis
• Gedney et al. Significant feedbacks of wetland methane release on climate change and the causes of their uncertainty
• Sillmann et al. Extreme wet and dry conditions affected differently by greenhouse gases and aerosols
• Polvani et al. Large Impacts, Past and Future, of Ozone-Depleting Substances on Brewer-Dobson Circulation Trends: A Multimodel Assessment
• Stjern et al. Arctic Amplification Response to Individual Climate Drivers
• Haskins et al. Explaining asymmetry between weakening and recovery of the AMOC in a coupled climate model
• Koutroulis et al. Global water availability under high-end climate change: A vulnerability based assessment
• Smith et al. The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification
• Malavelle et al. Studying the impact of biomass burning aerosol radiative and climate effects on the Amazon rainforest productivity with an Earth system model
• Chadwick et al. Separating the Influences of Land Warming, the Direct CO2 Effect, the Plant Physiological Effect, and SST Warming on Regional Precipitation Changes

2018 papers

• Lo et al. Best Scale for Detecting the Effects of Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosol Geoengineeririg on Surface Temperature
• de Moral et al. BGC-val: a model- and grid-independent Python toolkit to evaluate marine biogeochemical models
• Jackson and Wood. Hysteresis and Resilience of the AMOC in an Eddy-Permitting GCM
• Hamilton et al. Reassessment of pre-industrial fire emissions strongly affects anthropogenic aerosol forcing
• Liang et al. HTAP2 multi-model estimates of premature human mortality due to intercontinental transport of air pollution and emission sectors
• Fleming et al. Beyond Climate Change and Health: Integrating Broader Environmental Change and Natural Environments for Public Health Protection and Promotion in the UK
• Warren et al. Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans
• Betts et al. Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model
• Burton et al. Will Fire Danger Be Reduced by Using Solar Radiation Management to Limit Global Warming to 1.5 degrees C Compared to 2.0 degrees C?
• Naumann et al. Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming