Sugar Loaf (Monmouthshire) weather

Headline:

Overcast and misty, with patchy rain in the countryside.

This Evening and Tonight:

Cloudy, with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle affecting rural parts. Becoming rather misty too, with low cloud leading to patchy fog developing across the hills overnight. Cool under clearer skies in the north, but milder than recent nights. Minimum temperature 9 °C.

Tuesday:

A cloudy day, with patchy light rain and drizzle lingering over the hills. Some drier, brighter interludes, before turning breezy with heavy showers spreading northwards by the evening. Maximum temperature 17 °C.

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Showers, heavy at times, persisting through Wednesday. Drier and brighter on Thursday, before turning wet and windy once more from Friday, with further spells of heavy rain. Temperatures above average.

This period is likely to start changeable and often unsettled but relatively mild, with rain or showers for most places. There is potential for a deep area of low pressure to develop to the west or northwest of the UK early in this period, bringing a spell of very strong winds and heavy rain, especially to parts of the west and north. Towards the latter part of October, there are signs that whilst northwestern areas may continue to feel the influence of areas of low pressure, further south pressure is expected to build, bringing more in the way of fine, settled conditions. With this comes an increasing chance of overnight frost and fog, with the latter perhaps persisting well into the day in some areas.

High pressure is likely to steadily become more influential around the turn of the month. This means plenty of dry weather to be had, but with the chance of overnight frost and fog becoming rather more widespread than in the days preceding this period. Some large fluctuations between daytime and nighttime temperatures are possible, with relatively mild days, where fog doesn't linger, and cold frosty nights. Towards mid-November, the area of high pressure may track towards the northwest, allowing a gradual trend towards colder and perhaps more unsettled conditions.