South Newington (Oxfordshire) weather

Headline:

Light rain and drizzle for many. Isolated heavy showers later.

Today:

Cloudy and breezy start, with light rain and drizzle moving into many southern and western areas, and turning persistent in places. Outbreaks of rain and drizzle then clearing north through the afternoon, but with isolated heavy showers, perhaps thundery, following. Maximum temperature 17 °C.

Tonight:

Heavy showers at first, perhaps thundery, clearing northeast by midnight. Clear spells follow, perhaps some mist patches developing. Further heavy showers then spreading north though early hours of Monday. Minimum temperature 10 °C.

Monday:

Early cloud breaking to sunny spells. Scattered showers continuing for much of the day, heavy and perhaps thundery at times. Eastern parts with the best chance of staying dry. Breezy. Maximum temperature 19 °C.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Sunny spells and showers. These occasionally heavy with thunder, and perhaps merging at times. Chance for some heavy rain and perhaps stronger winds Wednesday. Breezy Thursday, and turning cold later.

The forecast period looks most likely to be mostly unsettled, with frequent bouts of wind and rain associated with areas of low pressure. There remains a threat of ex-Hurricane Kirk bringing very wet and windy conditions to some parts of the UK, especially the south, although the centre of this system looks most likely to track across northern France. Scotland and Northern Ireland are more likely to turn colder with showers from Wednesday, the colder weather (perhaps some snow on Scottish mountains) then gradually working its way south by the end of the week. Perhaps turning a little more settled for some areas as we head into next weekend, although detail by this stage is very low confidence.

A continuation of low pressure systems tracking in from the Atlantic is the most likely scenario for the rest of October. This means wet and windy weather at times, especially across England and Wales, but with a suggestion that Scotland and Northern Ireland may be more likely to see longer breaks in the weather, and more in the way of drier spells. It is possible that these drier conditions could be seen more widely later in the month as higher pressure further north extends southwards for a time. This would also bring an increased chance of overnight fog and frost. Temperatures will tend to be close to average overall in the south, but probably below average in the north and northwest.